What is Each-Way Betting, and how does it work? - Coral

So a lot of you will know that I regularly post guides and tips about match betting, However since the same questions always come up in the comments, I decided to make one big, very thorough Mega Guide in order to eliminate as many doubts as possible for you guys. Like I said before, This guide is a handy way to sort out a month's rent for 5 or 6 hours work, so I really hope it can be of use to someone. Anyway, Here it is:
PART 1: MATCH BETTING EXPLAINED; HOW TO MAKE £500 IN 5/6 HOURS
Having done my research and having been able to turn a really nice profit in such a short time, I wanted to make a short guide to eliminate people's doubts and simplify things a little. Since it really doesn't take a lot of time to hit that £500 profit mark, it's a shame not to try it out. Anyway, Here it goes:
I was sceptical as hell about Match betting because a friend showed me the Facebook groups and it just looked like a giant gambling pyramid scheme. It turns out there is a decent chunk of change to be made from it, you just need to follow the guides and never ever actually gamble with your money.
Never ever Gamble? Yes That's right, you are going to be using Gambling sites to complete the various offers, but the whole idea behind match betting is that every time you "make a bet", you match that same bet on the exchange. So for example, if I bet £10 for Real Madrid to Win on the Bookie Site at odds of 2.5, I then also make a Matched bet on the Exchange (This is a separate site such as Smarkets or Betfair) where I bet for Real Madrid not to win at odds of 2.5 (or as close as I can get to those odds). In this way I am covered in all outcomes, and it allows me to fulfill the requirements of the bookies offer (For example Bet £10 and get £30 in Free bets)
What's the difference between the Bookie Site and the Exchange? On the Exchange Site you are basically being the Bookie and just like a Bookie, you have liability. If I bet £10 and my bet wins at odds of 2.5 then I win £25, so the bookies liability for this bet is £15, the extra money that they would have to give me if I win. There are calculators on the Match betting sites which you can use to calculate what Liability you need to enter on the exchange each time you make your matched bet. There is also software to help you find what games have the closest odds on both the bookies and the exchange, which is very important.
What do I do when I get my free bets? It's the same process again, You find a game that has very close odds on both the bookies and the exchange ( You can do this by eye or by using odds matching software. A good site with this software is called OddsMonkey). Only this time when you use the calculator to work out your liability, you will set it to "Free bets SNR" so it knows you are not using real money. It will tell you how much Liability to use in the exchange and off you go.
How does this make me money? The fact that you have a free bet to use is what makes you money, For example a £30 free bet at odds of 5.5 in the bookies will win you £135 (30x 4.5, because the original free bet stake of £30 is not returned to you). Now let's say that the closest odds I can find in the Exchange for the same game are 6.0, I will need a liability of £112.50 to match my free bet in the bookies ( I use the calculator on oddsmonkey to work this out)
£135- 112.50 = £22.50 in Profit.
Alternatively if my bet on the exchange wins, I will lose the free bet of £30 (but it's not actually a loss to me because It's not real money) and I will win £22.50 on the exchange. Either way, I make a Profit of £22.50
What about providing card details? You can use a separate, virtual bank account for all your match betting, In this way your main banking information is not shared with any of the sites you sign up to. A good one to use is Monzo, the app is easy to use and it only takes 5 minutes to open an account. It's free to open an account and last I checked they actually have a referral scheme where you get £5 if you sign up through a referral link.
Non Referral here: https://monzo.com/
Where can I learn to do it? There are some sites that you have to pay a monthly subscription to but I found one called Team Profit that is free and has a full guide of all the different offers you can complete.
I worked my way down through the list of offers, nice and handy, and having completed 20 offers at 15 minutes per offer, I came out at £470 for 5 hours total of work.
If you are new to this site and are opening a free account I would really appreciate if you use my Referral (£10)
Here is the non referral link to the page with all the offers: https://www.teamprofit.com/welcome-offers-list
TLDR: You do not need to "gamble" to match bet, in fact by definition, the bet you make is "matched" on the exchange, so it is not a gamble in any sense.

PART 2: MAKING £500-£1000 EVERY MONTH.
You may sometimes see people commenting saying they have made a lot more money since finishing the welcome offers, £1000-£1500 a month and such, but never saying exactly how...
Personally I have made a lot more profit every month since I finished the welcome offers, Usually around the £1000 per month mark.
People say that Match betting drys up once you finish the welcome offers but this is simply not true, it's a matter of being more organised and checking your email for new offers, while also checking the Reload Offers section on Team Profit every morning (Takes literally 5 minutes)
Below is an Example from last month where I made £300 in one week. Bare in mind that the amount you make weekly will vary with the amount of sport that is on, but as long as there's sport, you will always be able to earn. This example is simply to show you the potential Match Betting has long after you've completed the Welcome offers:
Here's exactly how I did it:
Coral: Money back as a free bet up to £50 if your team is ahead in the first half but doesn't win the match in the end: Matched 5 Premier League games, 3 were successful. I received three £50 free bets which I matched and turned into £130 profit risk free. £130 in 30 minutes
William Hill: Money Back as Cash if your horse comes 2nd- 2 of the 6 horses I matched came 2nd, I was also able to make a profit by just matching the bets because my odds were higher on the bookies side by using the Happy Hour odds (between 12pm-1pm, 3 horses with enhanced odds) and also the 3 daily bet boosts on Horse raising( to boost my odds on another 3 horses). £20 in 5 minutes
Paddy Power: Money Back up to £10 if Horse comes 2nd 3rd or 4th, Matched the horse with the lowest odds and sure enough it came 3rd, got my £10 free bet. £8 in 3 minutes
Skybet: Money Back as cash up to £10 if Horse comes 2nd 3rd or 4th, Matched the horse with the lowest odds and sure enough it came 3rd, got my £10. £9.50 in 3 minutes
Skybet: Wednesday Super odds: Matched the three super odds on the exchange and due to the difference in odds (If the odds on the bookies are greater than those for same bet on the exchange you are automatically profiting). £10 in 3 minutes
Boylesports: £10 Free bet if your bet loses(Premier League Match): £8 in 3 minutes
Paddy Power 2up: An offer where you get paid out early if your time goes up by 2 goals, the profit varies depending on what the odds on the exchange are when you back the team you orignally lay against, but this offer can make you a lot of profit (You will need to download the team profit calculator app and use the early payout calculator). Last week it Made me £35. £35 in 5 minutes
Novibet: Deposit £100 and get a £50 free bet. Very easy because you just have to deposit the money, get your free bet, withdraw your £100 straight away, then match the free bet on the exchange. £40 in 5 minutes
Coral: Bet 3x £5 in play and get a £5 free bet-Availble everyday. Just match these at half time so the odds are stable, Make sure you also place mug bets every couple of days if you do this one a lot, I would reccomend doing it 5 times a week tops. £20 in 30 minutes
Paddy Powe Skybet Bet clubs: Bet 5x £10 bets in a week to get a £10 free bet with Paddy Power. Bet £25 in a week to get a £5 free bet with Skybet. £10 in 30 minutes

Above you can see the reality of making profit long after you've finished the welcome offers, but it comes down to organisation.
So in Summary, these are my 6 Rules for making a monthly Profit:
(1) Check your email daily for offers, many times bookies will send you personalised offers just for you, and these can be very VERY generous.
(2) Check the Reload Offers section on Team profit every morning to see what offers are available that day.
(3) Offers change all the time- Don't let this put you off. There are always new offers to replace the previous ones. There are also Weekly/Daily offers ( Coral £50 free bet, Paddy power refund if 2nd 3rd 4th, William hill money back if second, Paddy Power 2up, Bet clubs etc) which are constantly available when sport is on.
(4) Make Mug bets ( Explained more in PART 3)
(5) It all adds up. Don't think "It's only a £5 free bet, not worth matching". I get around 15 £5 free bets every week, If I ignored them all I would be down £200 at the end of the month.
(6) Don't spend all day at it. Once you've checked your email and reload offers, you know what offers you need to do that day. Set alarms so you can make your matches before each event starts, but don't spend ages sitting at your computer waiting for "the perfect match", for your own mental health, set a time limit of 1 hour per day at most.

PART 3: FAQ
(1) How much money do you need to put in to start?
When you go onto the offers page on Team Profit after signing up, there is an option to start with £25, £50 or £100. You can select one of those three options And it will show you a different number of offers according to your selection. I started with £100 because I wanted to get things moving a little quicker. I did this so that I would have enough money for liability to do a bigger earning offer at the start. One year later, and having see the potential for profit, I keep around £500 floating between my accounts. This is useful for large sporting events where I may want to do around 10- 15 offers in a short time.
(2) Is it in anyway going to impact my credit score?
Using gambling sites doesn't effect your credit score unless you borrow money to fund it. I do all my match betting through a virtual bank (Monzo) in order to keep that stuff out of my main bank on the off chance that it raises any eyebrows. You'll be using Monzo like a cash card, where you can only spend the money you put into the card. This is why it won't affect your credit score, because you wouldn't be taking out an overdraft or using credit for example.
(3) What is Mug Betting?
Mug Betting is where you make bets that have no relation to any offer or promotion in order to appear like a regular punter. If you are doing a lot of offers on one site, it's a good idea to make mug bets in order to avoid being "gubbed" (Gubbed is a term for when bookies realise you are only taking advantadge of promotions and close your account permanantly). Of course you will also Match these "Mug bets" on the exchange. Make 1-2 Mug bets on Each site every week(On the sites you are using a lot for offers and promotions) in order to ensure your accounts last longer than 1-2 years. I have been matching for well over a year and have never been gubbed. Take the extra couple of minutes to Mug bet, it's worth it.
More on Mug betting here

Ok so that's everything I can think of to share with you guys, The link to sign up to your free Team Profit account is at the bottom of Part 1 of this guide.
TLDR: You do not need to "gamble" to match bet, in fact by definition, the bet you make is "matched" on the exchange, so it is not a gamble in any sense.
I really hope this guide will help someone out because It really is a solid way to sort out a months rent for quite a modest amount of work.
Thanks for Reading.

The Top UK Sports Betting Site Welcome Offers

An answer for "how do you level farming"

TL:DR; Spring: if you're rich, Kale. Grab as many strawberries as you can for a boost into summer. Otherwise, potatoes, which you should already be doing. Summer: **Hops, especially with a speed-gro. If you're rich, Poppies. Support this habit with a big blueberry field and you'll be fine. If you have a little extra, wheat is cheap and quick. Fall: Bok choy. It's affordable and the highest experience yield.
So I've searched a couple times for this question over the months I've been playing the game, and of course the base-level answer is "plant stuff." Which is...easy enough, sure. But I thought, there has to be more to it. And there have to be optimal choices (that's what people are really looking for, right?)
So I dug in. Turns out, there's a different experience yield for each different crop (which makes sense), and it's not exactly 1:1 for cost/value/etc.
Everything below was run using numbers from the Stardew Valley wiki.
*EDIT: u/moxyll has pointed out that crops with multiple *harvests will grant xp each time. Harvests with multiple drops (i.e. potatoes) do not. I'll put two stars next to the edits below. Thank you, good sir!

Spring

So I'll start with Spring, cuz it's where you...well, start. And present the data I've worked out so far, listing only the top three (I haven't run every single one, but these are the obvious choices by numbers).
Parsnips cost 20g. They yield 8xp on harvest, after 4 days, giving an equivalent of 2xp per day. Base sale price is 35, for a gain of 15g.
Potatoes cost 50g. They yield 14xp on harvest, after 6 days, or 2.3xp per day. Base sale price is 80, for a gain of 30, but see below.
Kale costs 70g. It yields 17xp on harvest, after 6 days, or 4.1xp per day. Base sale price is 110, for a gain of 40.
**Strawberries cost 100g and can only be bought partway into Spring. However, for each crop, you'll get more than one harvest. They yield 18xp on harvest, after 8 days (or 2.25xp per day) then harvest again every 4 days (or 4.5 xp per day). If you use basic speed-gro and plant after the egg festival, you can get three harvests from each crop, giving you 3.4xp per day.
So **Strawberries and Kale. The startup cost is harsh, of course, but the gain is double that of parsnips.
That said, this is all just per crop cost. IRL you'll be dealing with the balance between planting several crops, buying more seeds, etc. This in mind, your best bet is potatoes, because with the luck-based chance at harvesting multiple (note that you don't get extra XP for multiple drops), you can afford more crops.
The short version is, Kale is best XP, but only if you're rich as hell. Potatoes are going to be way better due to their profit margin, and if you aren't primarily farming potatoes in spring then you're already doing it wrong.

Summer

Again, I'll just stick with three things for this one: wheat (grows fast and is SUPER cheap to buy), radishes, and poppies. These are the best.
Wheat costs 10g. It yields 6xp on harvest, after 4 days, or 1.5xp per day. Base sale price is 25g, for a gain of 15.
Radishes cost 40g. They yield 15xp on harvest, after 6 days, or 2.5xp per day. Base sale price is 90g, for a gain of 50.
Poppies cost 100g. They yield 20xp on harvest, after 7 days, or 2.9xp per day. Base sale price is 140g, for a gain of 40.
*Hops cost 60g. They yield 6xp on harvest, after 11 days, but then yield another 6xp *every day for the rest of summer. Without modifiers, this is 17 harvests of 6xp, 102xp total for the month, or 3.6xp per day. With deluxe sped-gro, this jumps to 20 harvests, which brings it to 4.3xp per day over the course of the season.
~~Again, the most expensive option is the best for experience.~~ Oddly enough, Hops comes out of nowhere and dominates this season, actually providing the best xp per day of any crop in the game by a decent margin. I'd like to note also, that between pale ale and the fact that gold hops give 81 energy, this is probably my favorite crop in general. Shame trellises are such a pain to walk around.
It's worth noting that starfruit is 44xp after 13 days, or 3.4xp per day, but since you can't get it until you fix the bus, which costs about 42.5k gold, you're probably well on your way to lvl 10 by that point anyway (having most likely gone through two springs, a summer, and a fall).

Fall

This one's easy: bok choy costs 50g. It yields 14xp on harvest, after 4 days, or 3.5xp per day. Base sale price is 80g, for a gain of 30.
Quick numbers, xp/day: beets 2.7, amaranth 3, artichoke 2.75
However, it's worth noting that given all the advice in this post, if you can't make it to lvl 10 before Fall, you're kinda doing it wrong anyway.
**Eggplant's growth rate and regrowth rate are the same, so the respectable 2.8 is sustained across the season without spending on replants. Grapes yield 6 times over the month, at 14xp each, for 3xp per day for the season (even basic speed-gro will boost this to 7 yields, or 3.5xp per day). Corn is a special case, growing steady over both summer and fall. Without fertilizer, you'll get 11 harvests over the two months, 10xp each, for almost 2xp per day. So not great.

Ancient fruit

So if you score the amazing luck to get Ancient Seeds, the xp/day calculation is a bit more complicated. For a month, it's obviously 0. After that, though, it shoots up to 5.4. Which is great an all. But odds are, you'll only have one, you can't buy them freely, and getting more means a seed maker and only getting 1-3 more seeds every 7 days and then each of those take a month to grow...yeah. So I didn't put much further effort into that. But if you're a psychopath and name exploit your way to a full plot of ancient fruit, 150+, then you'll have 0 xp until Summer 1 when you'll get 5700xp every 7 days, and have lvl 10 by day 21 or 22. Or you could exploit Ancient seeds and deluxe speed-grow and have your lvl 10 by Summer 16 I think.

Fertilizer

I guess you could argue that speed-gro (reg and deluxe) will improve your xp/day for many of the crops above. That'll cost a lot more each month. Speed-gro won't be available at Pierre's until Farming lvl 3, which at what I'd call 'optimal' game start would be Day 13. It raises the cost of each crop by 100, and would only benefit potatoes for the rest of spring (2.8xp/day). Or you wait until Summer and apply it to your poppies, boosting to 3.3xp/day. ~~It won't help with wheat, parsnips, or bok choy because 4 days is as quick as it gets without Deluxe and the Agriculturist profession.~~ u/BlaDe91 points out that it will improve a crop by a minimum of one day, no matter what.
The real issue is, for the cost of a speed-gro, you're giving up two potatoes to speed up one's growth by a little bit. So you could say that, assuming you have the energy to water them all anyway, speed-gro will actually cost you 1.8xp per day, not to mention the money lost. Finding a coral of course makes 5 speed-gro for free. I'd suggest stocking up on coral as soon as you have 300 wood and then starting it on your hops come summer - that actually would have a considerable effect.
As for Deluxe speed-gro, it isn't available until farming lvl 8, costs 150g, and only generally trims one more day off. By then you're probably not needing much help.

Read below if you are really bored.

Because I have no life, I'll run a silly numbers experiment.
So let's say you plant lots of crops, rather than planting the 'best' crops. Then you're limited by energy to water your crops. At character creation, you can water 135 plots with your daily energy allotment. However, by the time you can afford enough crops to reach this limit, you'll be at least lvl 2, when you can water 150. lvl 4, 168. Lvl 6, 192. Lvl 8, 225.
I'll take this from day one. Start with just the 500g and 15 parsnips you get to start, and just run parsnips. Cuz the variation would get mind-bashing too quickly. Same reason I'll assume base sale value.
Buy 14 parsnips with the 500g, plant your 29. Day 5, harvest your 29 for 232xp and 1015g. Puts you at lvl 1. Buy 50 parsnips. Day 9, harvest for 400xp and 1750g (632xp, lvl 2). Buy 87 parsnips. Day 13, harvest for 696xp and 3045g (1328xp, lvl 4). Buy 152 parsnips. Day 17, harvest for 1216xp and 5320g (2534xp, lvl 5).
At lvl 5 you can water 180 plots (this makes you exhausted, but by day 17 you should at least have some salmonberries so I'll call it even). 180 parsnips would cost you 3600, which leaves you 1720g to work with. Let's swap 57 of those parsnips for potatoes (yes, I did the math and that's exactly what you can do). Then day 21 you harvest your 123 parsnips for 984xp and 4305g (3518xp, lvl 6) and day 23 harvest your potatoes for 798xp and 4560g (4316xp, still lvl 6).
I'll stop here, because this has already gotten agonizingly inaccurate for where you'll actually be in a real game. After all, even when you start your day 17 harvest and are lvl 4, your harvest will be 16% silver and 9% gold (5702g, which is only a 382g difference). But more importantly, your first days have a lot of energy left; Day 9-13 when you're watering 87 parsnips, you're left with at least 115 energy, in which time there's a lot you can accomplish. To say nothing of foraging or quests. But with just what we've done here, you'll probably end spring at farming lvl 7. I don't believe it's possible to reach lvl 10 in your first spring without cheating/exploits, since it's 15,000 xp to reach and you're starting from scratch (so you lose half the month just getting enough money to have a decent plot of land).
If you made it this far...hi. I appreciate you reading this far. If I had a prismatic shard for you, I'd totally give you one. But since my name isn't [74] I don't have any to spare.

Turtle trading: a martket myth

I have been a matched betting enthusiast for years and now I am teaching it for free to everyone.

Hey beermoneyukers!
After years working in my 9-5 job as a website developer for a large corporation I decided I could not face selling my soul any longer lols and packed in my job.
Since then, I had a stint working as a freelancer whilst also making a healthy side income via matched betting. And over the past 9 months I’ve been building a website that teaches people how to do the same.
There are a lot of websites out there that teach matched betting, but most require a monthly subscription and most have long articles that can be a bit dry and hard to follow.
So instead, I built a website, Team Profit, that:
Is completely free
Uses animated video guides to teach people (link)
Has infographics to accompany all video guides
Provides step by step guides for 25+ bookmaker offer which will make you £600+ risk free (link)
I have amended the video script over 50 times to try to make it as concise and helpful as possible, hopefully they are a good watch!
Any feedback on the videos, guides, blog or anything else, please let me know, I spend every day adding new content and improving existing content.
If you are thinking of learning matched betting and making £600+ risk free, please check it out!
www.teamprofit.com

MEGA FAQs GUIDE TO MATCHED BETTING

The video guides I posted above will teach you everything about matched betting.
However, I figure no harm in me writing down everything I know about matched betting in an FAQ style layout. Hopefully this will be useful to you.
I have tried to answer every question as concise as possible / no rambling :D
I have split the FAQs into the following sections:

INTRODUCTION
1) What exactly is matched betting and how I do make money risk free?
2) How popular is matched betting?
3) Does it involve gambling?
4) How much money will I need to start?
5) How much time will it take me to learn matched betting?

OFFERS & YOUR PROFIT
1) How much money can I make matched betting from the welcome offers (new customer only)?
2) How much is a free bet worth in actual cash profit?
3) After I have finished the Welcome Offers, how much money can I make matched betting each month from Daily Offers (existing customer offers)?
4) What type of Daily Offers are available?

BOOKMAKERS AND BETTING EXCHANGES
1) Which bookmakers have the best welcome offers?
2) Which bookmakers have the best offers for existing customers?
3) What is mug betting?
4) What is a betting exchange?
5) How do we use a betting exchange?

ADDRESSING COMMON CONCERNS
1) How sustainable is matched betting?
2) Will it impact my credit rating?
3) Do the bookmakers have terms to stop customers from withdrawing?
4) Do I need to know about sports?

WHICH WEBSITES TEACH MATCHED BETTING - YOUR OPTIONS
1) Where can you learn matched betting?

ADDITIONAL FAQS
1) Depositing and withdrawing
2) Sending identification documents
Any questions that haven’t been answered please add a comment and I’ll add the FAQ and answer.

INTRODUCTION

1) What exactly is matched betting and how I do make money risk free?
There are more than 25 online bookmakers in the UK. In order to attract new customers, they each offer free bets, known as ‘Welcome Offers’.
In total they offer over £800 in free bets to new customers.
In order to receive the free bet, bookmakers require you to place your first bet. An example offer is ‘Bet £5, Get £20 free bet’.
The risk is that you could lose both the £5 bet (your own cash) and the £20 free bet.
By using a technique called matched betting, we remove this risk.
This is because we match our first £5 bet on the bookmaker with a £5 bet on a betting exchange on the opposite outcome (this is known as a ‘lay bet’).
For example, we bet £5 on Man Utd to win on the bookmaker, and £5 on Man Utd not to win on the betting exchange.
As we have now bet on all outcomes, regardless of whether Man Utd win, draw or lose, we will neither win nor lose money. However, we have received the £20 free bet!
With the £20 free bet, we can now repeat this process by betting on say Liverpool to win on the bookmaker and Liverpool not to win.
This time, because we are using a £20 free bet but our winnings are paid out in cash, we will always make a profit.
We repeat this process for 25+ bookmakers, one by one. In total we can convert the £800+ in free bets to over £600+ in actual cash profit, in very little time at all.

2) How popular is matched betting?
Matched betting isn’t new and has been around since at least 2005.
However, it is only since 2015 that it has really increased in popularity due to the rise of websites teaching matched betting. You can see this trend here: Google Trends Link
By looking at the various matched betting sites popularity, a reasonable estimate is at least 25,000 people in the UK are matched betters. You can see a review of sites that teach matched betting in the ‘Which websites teach matched betting?’ section below.

3) Does it involving gambling?
This is the most common assumption with matched betting. You’d be forgiven for thinking that it did involve gambling simply because the name ‘matched betting’ would suggest it did.
However, matched betting does not involve gambling, you will never be risking a penny.
Because we are always covering the opposite outcome occurring, there is never any risk we will lose money. Furthermore, we still receive the free bets which we will where we make our profit.
The profitability and risk free nature of matched betting has been reviewed in the Daily Telegraph and the Guardian

4) How much will I need to start?
You can start with as little as you want, however the lowest I would recommend starting with would be £25.
With £25, you can start your first bookmaker welcome offer and make a deposit into your first betting exchange, meaning you can start making a profit.
For more details, see this Starting with £25 guide.
The downside, with only £25 you are restricted by having to wait for withdrawals before you can move onto the next offer.
Therefore, I would say an optimal amount to have available for your cash flow would be in the region of £200 as this allows you to complete multiple welcome offers simultaneously.

5) How long will it take me to learn matched betting?
To learn the principles of matched betting, it will take up to 20 minutes.
To become familiar with completing your first offer, I would set aside another 30-60 minutes so you can take your time and ensure you are completing it correctly.
For example, the video guides on Team Profit last a total of 21 minutes (8 minutes for the explainers videos and 13 minutes to watch the step-by-step real time example). Although they last just 21 minutes, some users watch certain parts of the video again to become comfortable with the process.
It is very much recommended to avoid trying to learn matched betting by yourself. There are thousands of experienced matched betters who can help you. For more details on this, see the ‘Which Websites Teach Matched Betting’ section.
If you need any help anytime, please do comment in this Reddit thread and I’ll help you out.

OFFERS

1)How much money can I make matched betting from the welcome offers (new customer only)?
From the welcome offer, you can make approximately £1,000 cash profit.
There are 25+ bookmaker offers available on sports for at least £600 profit. These are relatively straightforward offers and good value in terms of time to complete. It would take around 12 hours to complete these offers, which works around £40 / hour tax free. You can complete them over any time period you like.
There are at least another 5 bookmaker offers, such as Bet365 and BetVictor, though these require more time, you could make around £100 to £200. They require more time because the bookmaker requires you to bet many more times before you can withdraw.
Plus 20+ offers across casino and bingo, though some are not risk free and typically take more time to complete, but you should be able to make at least £200 profit from these offers.
So overall, there is an easy £600 profit risk free, then up to another £400 if it’s worth your time to do them.

2) How much is a free bet worth in actual cash profit?
A £10 free bet is worth between £5 to £8 in actual cash profit.
The reason for the range is because the higher odds you choose for your free bet, the more actual cash profit you will make.
For example, if you bet on a football team with odds of 2.0, the £10 free bet will convert to around £5 cash profit. Whereas if you bet on a football team that is unlikely to win, with odds of say 6.0, the £10 free bet will convert to around £8 cash profit.
Note though, the higher odds you choose, the more you will need in your betting exchange account in case the bet wins. For a detailed explanation with examples, read this free bet profit article.

3) After I have finished the Welcome Offers, how much money can I make matched betting each month (from existing customer offers)?
Anywhere from £100 to £1,000+ per month.
Bookmakers continue to run free bet offers to retain their customers, I refer to these as Daily Offers.
Daily Offers are typically less valuable than the welcome offers but still worth completing.
For example, rather than ‘Bet £5 Get £20’ that they offer to new customers, they may instead run ‘Bet £20 Get £10’ and on a particular football match.
I would say for people with a day job, aiming for between £300 to £500 a month is realistic. In terms of time required, for every hour you spend, you should make around £30 tax free.
So to make £300 a month, expect to spend around 2-3 hours a week. I’d say to earn more than this, you will likely need to accept a lower hourly rate and do some of the low value offers too.
If you are looking to make £1,000+, I’d expect you would have to be near full time and also be fortunate to keep your enough of your bookmaker accounts open for 12+ month period (what is mugging bet FAQ below).

4) What type of offers are available for existing customers?

Easy offers:
The most common easy offer on football matches is Bet £20 Get £10 free bet. Many bookmakers run this offer, though it will usually be on a particular football match.
The most common easy offer on horse racing is usually on SkyBet, who will run simple offers such as ‘Get £25 free bet if your horse comes 2nd or 3rd’.
There are also easy casino offers, such as ‘£5 risk free’, where you spin on slots and hope to win, if you don’t they’ll refund up to £5 of losses.
These offers can make you up to £300 per month (or £500 on a good month with European football) and are easy for those with a day job.

Harder offers:
If you are looking to make more than £300 to £500 a month, then you will need to spend time on Saturday’s completing horse racing offers on Channel 4 racing and during the week too, though Saturday’s are the most profitable.
Plus you will need to do more advanced offers such as football accumulator refunds, each way offers, though I will leave these aside given they could have their own separate thread :p
If you’d like to understand where you can learn more about these offers, see ‘Which sites teach matched betting?’ FAQ below.

BOOKMAKERS AND BETTING EXCHANGE

1) Which bookmakers have the best welcome offers?

There are 3 formats of bookmakers welcome offers.

‘Bet £X Get £Y free bet’ - these are the most straightforward. Simply place your first bet and receive a free bet.
This format of welcome offer, ranging from Bet £5 Get £20 to Bet £50 Get £50, is available on Coral, SkyBet, BetBright, Betfred, Paddy Power, BetStars, William Hill, Stan James, Betway, Ladbrokes, TitanBet, 32Red and MarathonBet.

‘Refunds’ (also known as Risk Free offers) - these are similar to Bet £X Get £Y free bet. The only difference is you only receive your free bet if your first bet loses, hence I refer to these offers are refund offers.
This format of welcome offer is, ranging from £10 to £50 refunds, is available on Bwin, Dafabet, UniBet, Totesport, 188Bet, SuperLenny, Genting and 888Sport.

‘Multi Bets’ - these welcome offers require multiple bets to be placed before receiving your reward. It can take form of a bonus which requires to bet £X amount until you can withdraw any winnings, or the form of a cash reward once you have bet £X amount.
This format of welcome offer is available on Bet365, BetVictor and some other bookmakers, however they often require such a large amount of betting that I haven’t included them in this list.
The quickest to complete are the Bet £X Get £Y due to their simplicity, then the next best are the ‘Refunds’ offers.
The Multi Bet offers can be very valuable (e.g. Bet£365’s offer is worth over £150 profit risk free) but can also require much larger deposits in order to place the bookmaker bets and lay these bets in your Exchange.

For details of each bookmaker offer, see this Welcome Offer List & Guides

2) Which bookmakers have the best offers for existing customers?

Bookmakers vary in their level of generosity to existing customers. This is a little subjective, but in my opinion, this is the ranking of bookmakers for existing customers:

Best: Bet365
Bet365 run a £50 Risk Free offer most months (sometimes twice a month during popular football months) which is worth £35. It is very quick to complete (less than 10 minutes) so for £35 to £70, or around £500 a year, it is a great offer.
Plus they have one of the best horse racing offers, up to a £50 risk free bet if your pick a winning horse with high odds. This is a profitable offer worth around £20-£30 a week, or up to £1,000 to £1,500 a year.

Second Best: SkyBet
SkyBet run regular £5 to £25 free bet offers on horse racing and football, plus regular £5 risk free offers in SkyVegas.

Third & Fourth Best: Coral and Paddy Power
Both these sites run regular horse racing, price boosts and football offers (Bet £20 Get £10 in particular), at least £20 to to be made on every week from these two sites.

Good: William Hill, Ladbrokes, BetStars, Stan James, Betway, Bwin, Betfred, Totesport, 188Bet, 888, BetVictor
All these bookmakers run offer(s) each week so it’s worth ensuring you have completed the welcome offer for each of these sites so you can take advantage of their daily offers for existing customers.

3) What is mug betting?
If you are only ever betting when you receive an offer, the bookmaker will no longer allow your account to receive free bet offers (this is known as being ‘gubbed’).
To get around this, you should place ‘mug’ bets. ‘Mug’ bets are simply bets that a ‘mug’ punter would place. Mug bets include £1 accumulators (betting on several teams to win) and betting on favourites without an offer.
Most advice suggests that for every offer you receive, you should place 2-3 mug bets.
If you are gubbed, it does kinda suck when you receive the email, as you can no longer profit from the bookmaker’s offers.
It is also becoming increasingly common as bookmakers are noticing more suspected matched bettors, due to its increasing popularity. My advice is to make money whilst you can and take sensible precautions to try to keep your account active.
For more details, see this Mug Betting article

4) What is a betting exchange?
A betting exchange is a marketplace for customers to bet between each other on the outcome of particular events. This differs from a traditional bookmaker because an exchange also gives you the ability to be the bookmaker yourself and take bets from other exchange users.
Standard bookmakers generate profit by offering odds that are in their favour. Betting exchanges explained in terms of how they generate revenue is they charge a commission on any winnings a player receives.
The two market leading betting exchanges are, Betfair and Smarkets.
For more details, Betting Exchanges Comparison.

5) How we use betting exchanges?
When matched betting, a betting exchange is used to place our lay bets (the opposite bet to our trigger bet). So when we place the trigger bet with the bookmaker on one outcome to release the initial free bet, we must also cover the opposite outcome so that if the bookmaker bet does lose we still win on the lay bet - making it risk free!
Similarly when we are placing the free bet bet with the bookmaker we then lay off that bet using the exchange and because we’re using a free bet but being paid out in cash, this is how we turn free bets into withdrawable cash.
We only ever use betting exchanges for lay bets.

ADDRESSING COMMON CONCERNS

1) How sustainable is matched betting?
Matched betting over the past 6-9 months has become harder. Most bookmakers have realised they are thousands of matched betters taking advantage of their offers and so have either reduced the generosity of their offers or have made the daily offers more complicated.
However, there is still intense competition between the bookmakers, meaning they will always run special offers to an extent.
By spending a few hours a week, you can still make £300 to £500 a month, whereas in past year(s) this figure could have been £500 to £800.
The biggest issue matched betters face is being ‘gubbed’. As explained in the mug betting FAQ, this is when a bookmaker restricts you from receiving free bets and bonuses.
There are various theories as to how a particular bookmaker decides to to gub a customer. Reasons include taking up too many offers, winning a high % of bets, withdrawing regularly, placing bets far in advance or at irregular times.
The truth is nobody really knows precisely why people gubbed. However, you can expect to get gubbed at some point from a particular bookmaker, it may be 2 months, it may be 2 years, it is hard to know.
I really think though that everyone can make up to £1,000 from the Welcome Offers and at least £300 to £500 a month without any problems. I think the issues comes when you are making £1,000+ every month which sooner or later bookmakers will catch up that you are taking up a lot of offers.
Having said this, some people say they have been making £1,000+ every month for years, so maybe it is possible if you are using a wide variety of bookmakers and consistently placing mug bets.

2) Will it impact my credit rating?
Having betting activity on your bank statement does not impact your credit rating.
The only thing to be wary of when making betting deposits and withdrawals is that it can affect your application for a mortgage. So if you’re planning on applying for a mortgage in the near future then I’d recommend using a separate bank account to that which you’ll be applying for the mortgage with.

3) Do the bookmakers have terms to stop customers from withdrawing?
The vast majority of welcome offers do not have any withdrawal restrictions.
A handful of welcome offers do but this will be state in the terms and conditions. It is much easier though to use a matched betting website as they will clearly highlight the key terms of each offer (see ‘Which websites teach matched betting’ section below).
Casino offers will almost always have withdrawal restrictions, however for the matched betting welcome offers we are focusing on sports betting.

4) Do I need to know about sports?
Not at all! You do not need a sports background or have any sort of betting knowledge, many matched betters do not know anything about sport or betting before learning matched betting.
You may learn matched betting a little faster if you have sports betting experience but it really isn't important at all.

WHICH WEBSITE TEACH MATCHED BETTING - YOUR OPTIONS

There are 30+ websites that three key stages to matched betting:
Stage 1) Learning matched betting
Stage 2) Completing the Welcome Offers (for new customers)
Stage 3) Profiting in the long term from Daily Offers (for existing customers)
Below I have tried to cover the main sites that will help you with each of these stages.

In summary, I may be biased :p but I think the:
Stage 1) and Stage 2) best approach is to use TeamProfit.com
Stage 3) Join a paid membership site, either OddsMonkey.com, ProfitAccumulator.co.uk or ProfitMaximiser.co.uk to continue to make money from the Daily Offers.

FREE SITES:

TeamProfit.com (link)
I really believe Team Profit is the best site to learn matched betting and complete the welcome offers, but compare us to the other sites and see what you think!
Learn matched betting with animated videos (link)
25+ Welcome Offers using the step by step guides (link)
A free Facebook group to provide help to you anytime you need (link).

MoneySavingExpert.com (link)
The advantage of MoneySavingExpert is the sheer volume of content, covering all aspects of matched betting.
The disadvantage of MoneySavingExpert it is not well structured as it is just one forum with a long lists of posts so it takes quite a while to find relevant threads and miss key information.

MatchedBettingBlog.com (link)
The advantage of MatchedBettingBlog is the clear layout of the daily offers posted each day for with step by step instructions. It’s a good site to check to avoid missing the best and easier daily offers. The forum community also helps to post additional offers on top of those listed on the homepage, and also provides general advice on completing daily offers.
The disadvantage of MatchedBettingBlog is it is relatively limited in terms of teaching matched betting and does not provide a clear list of welcome offers. Also, for those looking to make £500+ every month, it doesn’t provide any software to help with the more advanced types of matched betting with daily offers, such as horse racing refunds and accumulator refunds, that the paid member sites offer.
Additional free matched betting sites include:
Matchedbettingfree.co.uk (link) (Reddit thread link)
Freebets4all.com (link)

PAID SITES:

Paid sites usually charge £15 to £25 a month.
In return, they will teach matched betting, provide list of welcome offers and provide daily offers too. Additionally, most paid sites will also provide software that helps to make you more money plus save you time.

OddsMonkey.com (link | non)
OddsMonkey charge £15 per month or £150 per year.
They are the most well known provider of matched betting software. Earlier this year, they added the full range of matched betting services, so now they provide all of the below:
Tutorial articles
Welcome offer step by step guides
Daily offers calendar
Software: OddsMatcher, Horse Racing Refunds, Tennis Refunds, range of calculators and spreadsheet
Forum
The advantage of OddsMonkey is the exceptional value. They have the best range of software and tools for matched betters to maximise their profits, are consistently bringing up new tools at no added cost. At only £15 per month it is one of the best options to consider.
The only disadvantage is the forum is not as busy as the next two options, ProfitAccumulator and Profit Maximiser. Though the forum is still a sufficiently active to ensure any questions have you are answered quickly.

Profit Accumulator (Link - Chazmer87's I don't have one | non)
Profit Accumulator charge £23 per month or £150 per year
Profit Accumulator helped to bring matched betting to the main stream with a highly active community. There are clear similarities between OddsMonkey and Profit Accumulator in terms of their high standard of software and offers.
The advantage of Profit Accumulator is their very active community. There is a great deal of advice in virtually every aspect of matched betting and the information is all well structured. Plus they have a very good offers coverage.
The only disadvantage to Profit Accumulator is the higher cost. The membership itself is £23 per month, plus their version of the Horse Racing Refunds software is £10 per month, or £115 a year. So in total you are paying £33 per month versus OddsMonkey’s £15 per month.

Profit Maximiser (Link | non)
Profit Maximiser is run by the original matched betting guru Mike Cruickshank.
Mike has been building software for matched betters for many years and has a very active Facebook Group.
Each piece of software is sold separately, I believe the below is accurate, each have their own £1 free trials:
Bonus Bagging £27 plus VAT - provides a list of all welcome offers and teaching (Link | non)
Profit Maximiser £97 plus VAT - provides all daily offers (Link | non)
Each Way Sniper £47 plus VAT - provides a horse racing betting system (Link)
Accumulator Generator £149 plus VAT - provides a football betting system (Link)
I believe Mike may have a couple more tools, if so I’ll edit this post if you could please comment / send me a message.
The advantage of Mike’s products is that there is no monthly recurring fee, so if you intend to do this for many months, it may work out profitable to do so. Plus from what I understand their Facebook Group finds some lucrative casino loophole offers faster than other matched betting providers.
The disadvantage of Mike’s products is that you have to buy each product separately rather than having it all within one simple account. Additionally, the total cost if you were to buy all 4 above listed products is £320 + VAT (total cost £384) whereas you could receive all these tools for £15 per month from Oddsmonkey. Having said that, Mike’s products do come with a £1 free trial, just be careful to cancel before the trial ends if you don’t want to continue.
Additional free matched betting sites include: Yes Bets link
Pure Profit link

ADDITIONAL

1) Depositing and withdrawing
To ensure you qualify for the Welcome Offer, use a bank card to deposit into your newly set up bookmaker account. Most sites will allow Paypal too though check the terms and conditions.
If you use Skrill or Neteller, typically you will not qualify for the Welcome Offer (bookmakers have this rule to prevent fraud) but you can check the terms and conditions.
Withdrawing is easy, you should receive your funds within 1-3 working days depending on the bookmaker.

2) Sending identification documents
Occasionally, bookmakers may require to send in identification documents (passport or drivers licence for example) and a copy of your bank card. This is to prevent fraud. This usually happens if you are not listed on the Electoral Roll or there is a difference between your home address and billing address. Simply take a photo of the documents they ask for and email them back.

THAT COMPLETES THE MEGA FAQ GUIDE TO MATCHED BETTING!

If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please do post a comment thanks!

All Scientists should be Skeptics, No Scientist should be a Denier

I recently listened to a talk by a climate skeptic, or was he a climate denier? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lOsmfAO2Gs&feature=youtu.be) It was a mix of factual information, confused information and left out information. Most of the experiments presented in this talk supported the idea that more carbon dioxide can make plants, and some animals, grow bigger. While some of his points were interesting, overall I found his talk selectively misleading. The speaker frequently conflates carbon dioxide levels with other climate change factors.
It’s always good to begin a talk with points that everyone can agree on. Everyone agrees that carbon dioxide is necessary for plants to survive and grow. It seems reasonable that more of this important building block, carbon dioxide, could make a plant grow bigger, and maybe faster too. Carbon dioxide is plant food and if there isn’t enough, plants will starve. Not only that, the earth would freeze. But, that’s a problem for a different time. Currently, there’s plenty of carbon dioxide to feed the plants on earth.
Now, throw in a little water, and in return plants make oxygen and glucose (and cellulose from the glucose) for the rest of life on earth. That sounds like a fair trade. Glucose also supplies energy for the plant and anything that eats the plant and anything that eats anything that eats the plant. Glucose is also in equilibrium with many other bio-molecules that are essential for life (glycolysis, TCA cycle, ATP, NADH, electron transport and more). These are all good things. So, does that mean we would benefit from more CO2 in our atmosphere?
I offer this analogy. Human beings need glucose since our brain cells do not store any and they pick it up from the circulating blood. In fact, the brain requires about 20% of our daily calorie needs to keep itself going. If our glucose levels drop too low, we can become hypoglycemic, possibly lose consciousness, even to the state of death. When brain cells recognize glucose levels are falling they start switching to ketone bodies, which build up during times of fasting or starvation in order to keep the brain alive. This is ok for awhile, but not good long term.
How do we know this? Well, many, many dedicated scientists studied very complicated biochemistry over the past century, wandering through a maze of mysteries. There were many false leads and corrections along the way, where scientists debated competing hypotheses. The end result is that our knowledge of the biochemical world is vastly more certain than ever because of science. Our knowledge is not complete, and it never will be, because biochemistry is too complicated. But that doesn’t mean we can’t find useful predictors of health and disease from an imperfect blood panel.
Plants need carbon dioxide and our brains need glucose. According to the talk, the speaker’s main point seems to be “if a little is good, more is better” (repeated over and over with every example of bigger and bigger plants with higher and higher levels of CO2). We can apply the same logic to glucose in the blood, also necessary for life. If we continue our usual diet and add one large candy bar each day, our blood levels of glucose will be higher and we will start to get bigger. Let’s add 2, then 3 extra candy bars each day. Our blood levels of glucose get even higher and we will get even bigger. This is a good thing, right? If we were deficient in calories, that might be true.
But wait, too much glucose in our blood can lead to obesity and diabetes, which leads to inflammation of blood vessels leading to blindness, periodontal disease and loss of our teeth, kidney disease, pregnancy problems, nerve damage and diabetic foot (often requiring amputation). Maybe there are other factors besides getting bigger that have to be considered.
For example, in global warming, there is also increasing temperature to consider when CO2 levels go up. When the levels of carbon dioxide are just right, about 280 ppm over the past many thousands of years, they help keep earth’s average temperature around 15C/59F, which is good for much of life. It is claimed that without our greenhouse gases, earth’s average temperature would be more like -18C/0F, too cold for many life forms. The earth would be a big ice cube and growing enough food to feed life on earth would be a major problem. On the other hand, too much carbon dioxide causes the opposite problem, and the earth cooks. For humans on earth, we need the ‘Goldilocks amount” of carbon dioxide: ‘just right’.
The speaker presents a simi-quantitative graph showing different levels of carbon dioxide and water. He argues that when there is more carbon dioxide in the air, the stoma of leaves can be smaller and retain more water, but there is nothing on the slide that mentions anything about leaf stoma and water retention. Stoma are openings on the bottom of leaves allowing carbon dioxide to be absorbed. Both water and carbon dioxide are incredibly small molecules that have absolutely no problem diffusing in and out of leaf stoma. If water is present as 1% of air, it concentration would be about 10,000 ppm, while CO2 is just over 400 ppm. It’s likely that the size and number of leaf stoma is more related to the levels of carbon dioxide, than water. The main conclusion from the qualitative graph appears similar to his initial comments, that more carbon dioxide makes a plant grow better, no matter what the water level.
The speaker emphasizes that trees and sweet corn continue to do well, even up to 100F. Maybe some plants can adapt to 90+ F temperatures, but not everything is able to do so. To emphasize his point he uses Phoenix, Arizona as an example of how you can grow sweet corn anywhere in the US at high temperatures, and what could be higher than Phoenix in the summer. .
So, how does corn grow in Arizona? I’ve listed the top 5 corn producing states below, and Arizona’s ranking and production and the total amount of corn produced in the US. Maybe growing corn in Arizona isn’t quite as great as the speaker implied? Also, the very small amount of corn grown in Arizona was grown in late spring and early fall, not in the summer.
State/ranking (2016) millions of bushels percent of US production
Total corn produced: 15,148 bushels 100%

Iowa 2,740 18.09%
Illinois 2,256 14.89
Nebraska 1,700 11.22%
Minnesota 1,544 10.19%
Indiana 946 6.25%

33-35. Arizona 11 0.07% (3 way tie with New Jersey and Wyoming)
http://beef2live.com/story-states-produce-corn-0-107129
Additional research on plants and carbon dioxide may find useful exceptions that provide greater insight about what factors are most important. Maybe special genes can be introduced or modified to make a plant more heat tolerant, able to live with less water and/or more salt in the water. There are many factors that can affect the way plants (or we) grow and many variables that can be affected by carbon dioxide (or glucose) in their own unique way. The outcome of one variable (size of a plant correlated with CO2 levels) does not necessarily correlate with all other outcomes (heat of the atmosphere, melting ice, acidification of ocean waters, etc.).
Even if some plants can live at higher temperatures, maybe other life forms have a hard time living at high temperatures, like us, for example. If the temperature gets up towards 105F, and there is very high humidity, we are cooked, literally. Our enzymes begin to denature and quit working in the vicinity of 105F. If the air is dry we can perspire and the evaporation can help keep us cooler, but if the humidity is high (> 90%), then we will succumb to heat exhaustion, and can die because we have no way to cool down. As long as one of the two variables is ‘lower’ we can survive, but if both get too high, we can’t.
If I took the speaker at face value with respect to high CO2 and temperature, I would expect these conditions to provide lots of green vegetation, thriving with the extra carbon dioxide and heat. However, when I hike through the Southern California foothills on hot summer days, I do not see green as the dominant color, I see brown everywhere (not to mention occasional smoke and fires). The brown is partly due to the other critical molecule, water (or lack thereof). While all of this seems reasonable, I’m certain we don’t understand every detail. Pretending none of this makes any difference can lead us to a dead-end, literally.
The speaker makes an emphatic point about the greening of earth, which shouldn’t be too surprising since plants are getting more carbon dioxide to munch on. This is a good thing for plants, but is it the only thing? The following comes from a web page on Popular Science titled: “Satellite Data Show the Earth is Getting Greener” (2015). Once again, we find there is more to the story than the speaker told us.

[ "It isn't often that environmental scientists get good news. But a new study in Nature Climate Change found that for the past few years, the earth has been getting a little bit greener, accumulating an additional 4 billion tons of biomass (vegetation) between 2003 and 2012. That's a good thing, because plants take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, locking harmful greenhouse gas away in the new growth.
Now to burst your carbonated bubble; this study wasn't looking at a direct connection between the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and plant growth. Even if the extra plants make a difference, the fact is carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been rising steadily for decades.
The additional green came from a few places: In former Soviet countries, forest started to grow back over farmland, while in China, massive tree planting campaigns seemed to do the trick. The researchers also found that more arid areas had a lot of vegetation as well, including shrubs in savannas in Africa, Australia, and South America.
The researchers used numerous satellites to look at changes in vegetation over the years. They looked at microwave radiation bouncing off the Earth's surface, and by pulling together data from the different satellites, they were able to get a month-by-month idea of how much living plant matter was on our planet for the past 20 years.
While in recent years it seems like things are looking up, the prognosis isn't entirely rosy. The team still found huge amounts of deforestation in the rain forests of South America and Southeast Asia. Those findings line up with another report from earlier this month that noted that deforestation in rain forests seems to be increasing. Not only that, but the areas where vegetation is spreading (like the savannas) are highly sensitive to changes in climate. A particularly dry year (or years) could kill off the new vegetation and put us right back where we started." ]
https://www.popsci.com/new-study-shows-earth-getting-greener

Almost all of our heat on earth comes from the sun light (electromagnetic radiation = EM). The regions of the EM spectrum that are most important to earth are the high energy ultra violet (UV = dangerous), visible (the colors that we see) and lower energy infrared (IR we experience as heat). It is estimated that the sun puts out a tremendous amount of energy, 4x10^26 Watts (joule/second), but only about 2x10^17 Watts strikes the earth. About 30% of that is reflected back to space and about 70% is absorbed at the surface. If we could capture and store a fraction of that energy, we wouldn’t ever need to worry about fossil fuels. But we haven’t completely solved those problems yet, so fossil fuels are still part of our equation. There are some good ideas out there, solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, possibly nuclear and others. Deniers will tell you none of these ideas can compete with fossil fuels, but nothing ever competes in its early days of discovery, even fossil fuels. New ideas in science always take time, and trial and error to work the kinks out.
I am not a climatologist, I am a chemist and I have been for over 50 years (recently retired). In my job I took thousands of spectra (IR, various types of NMRs, MS, UV) and did lots of other experimental stuff. I looked at the IR spectra of water and carbon dioxide almost every day from 4000 cm-1 (2.5 mm) to 500 cm-1 (20 mm). It was the background IR spectrum of air that was subtracted from all routine organic IR spectra. Anyone reading this can Google “background IR spectrum” to see what one looks like.
The main IR energy absorbing bands in air are from H2O and CO2, and mostly, they do not overlap. This means that all the bands have heat absorbing potential from molecular vibrations (stretching and bending modes), as long as none of them have been maxed out by other greenhouse molecules (nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, chlorofluorocarbons, are all present in much lower amounts, though they are stronger absorbers). Water bands are around 3500+/- and 1500+/- and carbon dioxide are around 2250+/- and 800+/- cm-1. Once CO2 and H2O are excited by background heat (IR), those molecules quickly relax by transferring their energy via collisions with other molecular substances, and do it all over again and again and again for as long as they are in the atmosphere because the sun shines on earth every single day. By the slow process of convection, the heat is distributed throughout the atmosphere. It’s like a “bell” that can be rung over and over forever. It is this property that helps the atmosphere retain heat. As mentioned above, in the right amount, this is a good thing and helps make life possible.
Water is actually a stronger heat absorbing molecule than CO2, but since 70% of the earth’s surface is water, there’s nothing we can do about water. The variable that affects water the most is temperature because the vapor pressure of water increases as temperature increases. The more water in the atmosphere, the more heat retaining potential it has. The partial pressure increase is pretty small for a 1C increase (25C à 26C increases water vapor pressure by 23.8 torr à 25.2 torr, delta = 1.4 torr). However, the atmosphere is so large that even a small increase in vapor pressure, adds a lot of water. I estimate about 1.5x10^15 moles of water (3x10^16 grams) added, assuming a 10 mile deep atmosphere. That calculates out to about 10^17 joules to heat the added water 1C. Each 1C increase in temperature adds to this effect.
Because liquid water has a large heat capacity, it can absorb a lot of heat. In the short term, the temperature of the atmosphere does not go up as much as it might if the oceans weren’t there. This is an advantage when earth’s temperature is going up because it provides a long time lag for increasing temperatures. But, it also means that the oceans retain heat better and are slower to cool down. Oceans act like a giant heat reservoir that can affect our environment (like melting ice), and delay the consequences of increased heat for decades, or even longer.
You don’t have to take my word for it, test it yourself. Take two similar size ice cubes and put one in a medium bowl and at the same time put the other ice cube in a similar size bowl about half full of tap water. Start your watch and see how long it takes them to completely melt. When I did this, the ice cube in the bowl with water melted in 8 minutes, while the ice cube in the empty bowl took 92 minutes. This will give you a feeling for how fast a glacier on land takes to melt by absorbing heat from air compared to an ice berg out floating in the ocean absorbing heat from water. I didn’t actually do it, but try the same experiment with hot water. Make a prediction before you try it and see what happens. I bet you will be right. This is how science works and helps us to make decisions using the best information available. Believing in people who denigrate science and its methods will lead us back to the dark ages.
Yet another problem with glaciers is when the melt occurs at the bottom of glaciers it allows them to race to the ocean much faster, because of the reduced friction. Once the ice hits the oceans, the melt rate greatly accelerates and adds extra water to our oceans.
Even though water has a larger capacity for retaining heat, carbon dioxide is the key, because carbon dioxide is the factor that can throw off our balanced, comfortable world that we have enjoyed for almost all of humanity’s existence. In fact, this comfortable world is probably what allowed us homo sapiens to rise to dominance over the past many thousands of years. We owe a world of gratitude to those two little molecules, H2O and CO2, but we have to recognize when there is too much of a good thing, just like glucose in our blood.
Now, one little CO2 molecule hardly does anything by itself, but I calculate that there are about 10^40 CO2 molecules in the atmosphere. None of us know what that number is, but if you keep multiplying by 10 at some point it will start to have a significant effect, and If you multiply by 10 again and 10 again, it goes off the chart. But, is the amount of carbon dioxide large enough to do everything the climate scientists say it does?
It’s time for another analogy. Microwaves are lower energy than IR radiation and provide an everyday heating example that occurs much quicker than IR heating of the atmosphere. Because microwaves have longer wavelengths (lower energy), they can penetrate deeper into the food item cooked and heat everywhere at once, unlike IR radiation, which heats our atmosphere by convection. Lower energy microwaves tend to excite rotations of water molecules, which then continually relax by slamming into other molecules and transfer their kinetic energy (heat) throughout the sample. Just like the carbon dioxide “bell” that can be rung over and over, the water “bell” in a microwave sample can be re-rung (re-excited) over and over and over, with a result that our food gets hotter and hotter, until it cooks.
The energy source for a microwave oven isn’t the sun, but typically a 1200 watt (joule/second) energy source. Pretty quickly things heat up because the sample is so small and the radiation is focused. But, leave your popcorn in 1 minute over the required time and most of us know what happens: charcoal. IR energy is 100 to 1000s of times greater than microwaves, so it seems reasonable that IR radiation can also do some serious heating.
Because the world is so big (atmosphere and oceans), rising CO2 levels usually take 100s to 1000s of years to heat up instead of 2 minutes. We aren’t looking at a large temperature increase to cook food, we are looking at a small temperature increase that melts ice. And, we are heating 10^40 CO2 molecules, 5x10^41 water molecules, 5x10^37 methane molecules, etc, over and over and over. It seems reasonable to consider that higher CO2 levels can overcook the world, if we wait awhile. The worry for our time is that we are adding CO2 so fast that it may only take decades to centuries to do this instead of centuries to millennia. Do we have a choice?
Humans started recording an average world temperature in 1880-1889 (13.71C/56.71F). It’s hard to know what those early average temperatures mean, considering the state of the world back in 1880. Temperature measurements today are more reliable and more spread out, including satellite measurements. The most recent complete decade, 2000-2009 recorded average temperatures of 14.51C/58.12F. Those are pretty small increases, for the entire earth over 130 years (delta = 0.78C/1.41F). However, about 0.51C/0.92F of that increase occurred since the 1970-1979 decade. Even more disturbing is that above 64N latitude the temperature increase from 1880-1889 to 2000-2009 was 2.5C/4.5F, with most of the increases coming in the recent decades, 1.8C/3.24F. Overall recent decades show temperature increases of about 0.2C/0.36F per decade. If that were to continue for the entire 21st century, average world temperature would rise about 2C/3.6F. The flooding resulting from such a temperature increase would cause colossal problems for coastal cities, fresh water tables and food growing coastal deltas. Our current decade is not finished (2010-2020), but the 4 warmest years on record have all occurred since 2014. That means the last 4 years are the hottest yearly average temperatures on record! Deniers will tell you it’s a fluke, climate change scientists will tell you it’s a trend, heading in the wrong direction. It won’t be surprising if 2018 makes it 5 out of 5. (You can use the mouse scroll wheel to expand or shrink the graph.)
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature
These higher temperature readings come with major consequences such as sea level rise and climate effects. Any sort of positive feedback mechanisms could make things worse (like increasing methane and/or changing ocean currents). Of course there is a big IF in front of all of this, because this is an experiment humans have never done before. The problem is we only get one chance to do it, and if we screw it up, too bad for those future humans. Deniers, such as the speaker in this video, advocate higher carbon dioxide, because the plants are hungry for more. However, to ignore the dire consequences of global warming would require iron-clad, 100% proof that there are no dangerous consequences. Considering the down side possibilities, this is a dangerous gamble. So far, deniers haven’t offered that iron-clad, convincing proof.
The speaker also discussed ocean acidity, which increases when atmospheric carbon dioxide dissolves in the oceans (lowering the pH). At first this was thought to be a good thing because it slows down the increase in temperature of the atmosphere. However, carbon dioxide reacts with water and makes carbonic acids, which makes the oceans more acidic. In a research paper, mentioned by the speaker, hydrochloric acid was used to adjust the pH of the solution. The speaker dismissed the use of hydrochloric acid and the research that used it as something totally different than carbonic acid. Once again, the speaker misled us.
First off, there is no hydrochloric acid in aqueous HCl. Since HCl is a strong acid, it dissociates completely to hydronium ion, H3O+, and chloride, Cl-. Chloride is in every living life form on earth, including us, and is essential to all cellular function. It is also present at significant levels in the oceans, so it is not really anything different than what we already see in our world. Hydronium ion is just a solvated proton on a water molecule, whether it comes from hydrochloric acid or carbonic acid.
The reason scientists use HCl to adjust the pH of acid solutions is because it only affects the balance between another acid (carbonic acid, a weak acid that does not dissociate completely) and its conjugate base (bicarbonate, the other part that forms when a proton is lost). The pH is just a number that helps determine the balance (ratio) between a conjugate base and its conjugate acid. The other variable to consider is the actual concentration of the acid, itself, in solution, independent from the pH. This too can go up when more carbon dioxide dissolves in the oceans. It is a moderately complicated equilibrium when considering all of the molecular species, and looks something like the following. The < arrows indicate equilibria and H (+1) represents hydronium ion.
H2O + CO2 < H2CO3 < H(+1) + HCO3(-1) < H(+1) + CO3(-2)
The same hydronium ion (H3O, +1) that forms when HCl dissolves in water also forms when carbonic acid (H2CO3) dissociates to bicarbonate (HCO3, -1). The bicarbonate can also dissociate to another hydronium ion (H3O, +1) and carbonate (CO3, -2), which is necessary for shell forming organisms and plankton. Plankton are clearly important and use carbon dioxide and water to make glucose and much of earth’s oxygen via photosynthesis. Plankton also form the base of the ocean’s food chain. More carbon dioxide can allow more plankton to grow (good), but is that the complete picture? Plankton also need other nutrients, and calcium, phosphate, nitrates, silicates and some, even fix nitrogen gas. They are also affected by water temperature, salinity, water depth, wind and what kinds of predators are around. The effect of all these variables can only be determined by laborious scientific experiments, something deniers detest and discourage at every opportunity.
Surprisingly perhaps, from the emphasis in the talk, plankton (and plants too) do depend on more than “just carbon dioxide”. So, once again, the logic of the talk “If a little is good, more is better,” is flawed. Too much acid (too low of pH) is bad for CaCO3 shells, because it drives the above equilibrium equation backwards, towards carbon dioxide and water. Does that mean that every single organism will be adversely affected the same way by lower pH? Of course not, but some might be, maybe even most. How do we find out? We do the research and scientists are doing just that. Deniers don’t want results, they want ignorance.
You can check this effect out yourself at a faster rate than decades or centuries. Next time you go to the beach collect a little shell and add a few drops of HCl solution to see what happens to it (remember, you are really adding hydronium ions). Another name for HCl is muriatic acid which you can find at a pool supply store because it is used to adjust the pH of a pool. (Just be careful if you use it because it a strong acid. It’s a good idea to wear gloves and wash off your skin if you get any on you.) You will probably see little bubbles on the surface of the shell, which is carbon dioxide forming from the reverse reaction of when the carbon dioxide dissolved in water.
Too much hydronium ion pushing the equilibrium back in the opposite direction is not good if part of your outer structure is made of CaCO3. Too much acid also throws off the many complicated equilibria in living organisms. Our blood pH needs to stay in the range of 7.40 +/- 0.05 pH. Each organism has its own special pH range to survive. Deviate from that tiny range and cells start to die. Ocean pH doesn’t affect humans’ pH, but animals and plants that live in the ocean can be greatly affected. To find out, we have to do the science, which scientists are doing. Just saying pH doesn’t matter is a misleading denier tactic. Being a skeptic means additional experiments to find out where it counts and where it doesn’t.
Clearly this speaker is talking out of his comfort zone. His agenda is not to present honest science, rather he seeks to discredit climate scientists by presenting very selective results that have nothing to do with what he is really attacking (If A is good, then B must also be good and everything else must be good.) He even throws in a cute shrimp and a crab making the crab bigger (more carbon dioxide) and smaller (less carbon dioxide) with a smug chuckle, getting the audience to laugh along with him.
Listening to this speaker, gives the impression that carbon dioxide helps all animals in the crab study. In the actual experiments, all of the animals in the crab study were observed in tanks (not in the wild) fixing all of the variables except carbon dioxide. In all, 18 benthic marine organisms were studied. Blue crabs grew the biggest of any of the animals (up to 4X bigger!) and lobsters and shrimp also grew larger with higher CO2. So, the point is proven, correct? No. What the speaker did not mention in his talk is that higher CO2 levels (lower pH) inhibited the growth of 10 other animals, including oysters and corals and one animal did not show any change. In some cases higher CO2 (lower pH) actually led to dissolution of the shells. The mechanisms for these different results were not discussed and are probably very complicated. That wasn’t the message the speaker wanted us to hear.
This would be ok if the speaker’s misinformation only affected him, but it doesn’t. It affects everyone listening to him talk. Seeing bigger trees and bigger crabs with more carbon dioxide and coming to the conclusion that everything else he says must be true: that carbon dioxide is the greatest thing around, and all the thousands of scientists of the world, getting “biased” grants, are conspirators trying to take away our freedoms and ruin our economy is the message deniers are shooting for. Skeptics, on the other hand, say “I don’t know. Let’s find out.”
In reality, this whole climate change problem is hugely complicated. Very dedicated scientists are working hard to find real answers to get us out of this potential predicament. Simplistic arguments that put us all in danger are not useful. We need solutions, not pretend information that makes fossil fuel companies richer at our expense.
It is the fate of the earth that we are contemplating over the next 100-1000 years. Are you betting pocket change, or are you betting the future lives of the generations to come? Do we just eat, drink and be merry, or do we care to make a better future?
So, I did enjoy parts of the talk and found it interesting how the plants and crabs got bigger with extra carbon dioxide. I’m pretty sure they were grown in some sort of sealed off environment, like a greenhouse or water tank, where the CO2 levels could be controlled. That’s ok because that’s the way science is usually done, one variable at a time. The speaker should have told us there were conflicting results and that there are other factors to consider, but he didn’t. He should not have pretended that his very limited points cancel out all of the other climate change research, but he didn’t. I, personally, don’t want the entire earth atmosphere to have that much carbon dioxide present, considering the current status of what we know. Who cares if blue crabs are 4 times larger, if sea levels are 3 feet higher?
For someone who is science-phobic, this is scary stuff and it’s hard to know how to sift through all of the complicated details. Deniers are counting on that. Even scientists can’t tell exactly how things will play out. It’s not surprising that people become very alarmed, or even hysterical. They are hearing consequences that will happen 100 years from now and thinking it will happen in the next 10 years. There are exaggerators on the alarmists’ side too. Exaggeration on the alarmists’ side leads to paralysis, while distortion on the denial side leads to inaction. Either result puts life on earth at risk, whether it be 10 years, 100 years or 1000 years.
From the YouTube talk, it seemed like the speaker was fine with CO2 levels over 1000 ppm, or even higher. I think anyone seriously considering this problem would have major reservations about having their family and friends live at such high CO2 levels, and probably wouldn’t want to treat them like a tree or crab experiment. We don’t get to do this experiment over and over in our nice little greenhouses. This is a one-time experiment and the greenhouse is earth, our house.
We all need to be more honest in how we view and present the facts. Where there are conflicting results, we need more research. We don’t need science-ignorant leaders trying to squash valid scientific research. We need leaders who believe in science and are willing to confront the problem of climate change head on. It is a very reasonable assumption that we are facing some tough climate change problems that require some cutting edge thinking, right away.
Cheap energy raised humanity above subsistence living and allowed us to live like kings and queens. However, we never thought ahead to more than the next moment and the problems snuck up on us. Society is more fragmented than at any time in my memory. Democracy is in peril in many places. Yet, there is only one way out of this dilemma that affects us all. The world has to come together if we are to have any chance at solving this problem. We did it with chlorofluorocarbons, but that was a relatively trivial problem compared to the energy problem of climate change. Unfortunately, it may take a few more monster disasters to convince humanity of the existential threat to our survival. If climate change scientists are correct, humanity will have to pay a little extra ‘late fee’ for the delay.
What we really need are alternatives that only require moderate sacrifice to switch over to. Forcing change on people won’t work, so we need something else. We need incentives that encourage us to do the right thing. Money is a powerful motivator, but maybe there are other approaches. The power structure is another huge problem. Fossil fuel companies do not want to give up their privileged positions. They have known for decades about the problem of climate change but have only recently acknowledged that fact. They are the most powerful source of denial and we all have to pay the price of that denial.
There are many other serious problems, such as increasing population, declining resources, pure drinking water, poverty, food distribution, global conflicts, mass migrations, nuclear weapons and more. Climate change will compound many of these. From all of the arguments I have looked at, on both sides, I would say climate skeptics and climate advocates are all pretty smart. We shouldn’t be wasting our time and energy demonizing one another. Denial is a dead-end road for all of us. We need to immediately start working together to search for every possible solution to the many problems we face. We have to start decreasing our use of fossil fuels. Immediately eliminating use of fossil fuels would be best, but clearly, that’s not going to happen. Possibly, we could reduce 5% a year for 20 years, as we substitute in alternative solutions. Reductions would have to be strictly enforced to do any good. There’s too much at stake to do nothing.
I’ll leave you with what seems to me to be a very hopeful alternative. If we could make hydrogen gas (H2) from water (bacteria do it and, on a small scale, we can too), we could take that H2 and burn it with oxygen to make energy and water, which we could remake into hydrogen gas as a never-ending, nonpolluting source of energy. No CO2 in the equation. There are some storage problems of this highly pressurized, explosive gas, but that sounds solvable. We already do it with propane. Also, the energy content of hydrogen gas is lower than hydrocarbons, such as octane.
http://oceangeothermal.org/archive-old/hydrogen/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIlonWoc_p2wIVAtbACh3EjQw2EAAYAiAAEgLTtvD_BwE
There are always unforeseen problems, which is why we need to throw resources, money, creative minds and everything else we’ve got, to develop these ideas. We need to educate ourselves about what the problems are and what the possible solutions are. No more being ostriches, burying our heads in the sand. No more denial. Instead, eyes wide open now!

Izumi3682 Archives

Is it odd to just want to be alone when with friends? by OrangePinapqle in AskReddit


[–]izumi3682 1 point 1 month ago
What? No, I just wanted to see what your interests were in your overview. So I could get a feel for your knowledge of the way the future is going to unfold. I just saw two things that I thought would be interesting for discussion. No, if you look at my overview you see I pretty much stick to futurology.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (20)editdelete
Is it odd to just want to be alone when with friends? by OrangePinapqle in AskReddit


[–]izumi3682 2 points 1 month ago
I love being alone. I thrive on being alone. To me "Hell is other people". I suspect I am mentally ideally suited to the world that is coming.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/a50dfb/completely_unacceptable/ebn3jfg/
permalinksavecontextfull comments (20)editdelete
Without an End to Aging, Every New Technological Advance is Just Another, Greater Monument to the Dead by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Finally, what was the point of your link? As far as I can tell it’s closer to Sophistry than anything useful to the topic at hand.
No it's just concrete illustrations of how we have progressed. What did I write that's not sound or is misleading? You ought to be blown away by the implication. I certainly was when it came to my attention.
“Cool we’ve got a new thing but how do we use it.”
Society is going to undergo comprehensive transformations in the next ten to twenty years. Could be good, could be bad. But changes like nothing we have ever experienced before, due to the ARA. The biggest change will be, will things still have value like we think of value today. Remember that hardly anyone is going to be working by the year 2030. I would say 70% at least, technological unemployment. But even if I am way off and the actual figure is more like 25%, that is well enough to force societal change.
One of the things that people most misunderstand about Ray Kurzweil's concept of the technological singularity is that is not about how we humans will achieve this or that. It is about how the universe at large evolves. At least as far as baryonic matter is concerned. I will imagine we will figure out the ins and outs of other things like dark matter or energy, if they are not even merely artifacts of our current perception. What new fundemental thing will we learn about the universe that we can't imagine today, but will be common knowledge in say, 50 years?
No one ever said the 'technological singularity" was going to be safe and effective. Only that it is inevitable. And based on our historical progress--soon. Probably no more than twenty years, if that. Humans could be totally consumed in the evolutionary growth or could be drivers of the evolutionary growth. The end result as far as the universe at large is concerned is the same.
I love to write about this. And I've been writing about this for about the last five years now. Before that, the time wasn't right. The computing power and capacity had not reached the critical threshold necessary. I was just a working stiff, with no real concept of the future, if I thought about it at all.
I love to discuss this too. Look at my overview. I post the developments that stun and amaze me by the day. We are already in the "pre-singularity". Advancements that took years now take months. What used to take months takes weeks. What used to take weeks now takes mere days. Just watch our narrow AI develop by the day, the week, the month.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (11)editdelete
Preachers of peace tells men to cover up THEIR women and not be pigs by AditKhan90 in atheism


[–]izumi3682 1 point 1 month ago
But I notice that they all settle down into peace and co-existence eventually. Consider the people of Judaic faith in the old testament. They were warlike and they worshipped a God that would smite you in a heartbeat. Consider what Christendom was like about the year 1492 and how that affected the world of that time.
The only Jihads that Jews and Christians have today are those of our internal beings, our souls. I don't even know if the Jews proselytize. The Christians do, but it is by examples of love and faith. Not the sword so much.
So to me Islam is at about the point the Roman Catholic church was around 1492. And this sort of makes sense in the scale of each respective religions history. But I bet Islam too will slowly settle down to peaceful co-existence.
But of course, nowadays there is a modifier, courtesy of futurology me. And that is our computing capability and what it is leading us to.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (8)editdelete
Without an End to Aging, Every New Technological Advance is Just Another, Greater Monument to the Dead by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 5 points 1 month ago
Oh ho! ho! Just watch what we do with the ARA (AI, robotics and automation), not to mention biotech, fusion/solar energy, quantum computing, nanotech/material science and VR in the next, just 20 years! Once we start merging that computing and machine learning capability with our minds, well, it's going to be like umm, the "Technological Singularity"! By the year 2030 alone we will probably be as advanced from us today as we today are advanced from the year 1700. After 2050? We can no longer model. This is all totally discounting the possibility of AGI or worse, EI (emergent intelligence).
This makes perfect logical and physical sense too. Here, I wrote this a while back, but it gives you a very good understanding and insight into how we actually are progressing.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/4k8q2b/is_the_singularity_a_religious_doctrine_23_apr_16/d3d0g44/
permalinksavecontextfull comments (11)editdelete
Without an End to Aging, Every New Technological Advance is Just Another, Greater Monument to the Dead by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 1 month ago
I suspect that in as little as 300 years that time will cease to have meaning to what we derive into. I bet we exist outside of what we think of as time and space at present. We shall be unimaginable and unfathomable. Not like the difference between like a man from the Bronze Age and a fellow today, but the difference between a human today and an archaea.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (11)editdelete
Without an End to Aging, Every New Technological Advance is Just Another, Greater Monument to the Dead by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I don't think serial killers is going to be an issue. One of the most common misunderstandings of what the future is going to be is that we tend to think of one facet only, i.e. eternal biological youth and health. Also we tend to think in terms of how we exist at the time of thinking about the future.
This is not just about "living forever". In fact if you were in perfect health and youth, something would take you out in about 1200 years by the law of averages. I read that someplace.
No what is going to happen is we are going to merge one way or another with our, well we call them machines today, but that is like calling something like the fictional T-1000, just a "robot".
The machines and computing of our future are very probably beyond our current capability to imagine. But I can give you kind of a feel for what it will be like.
So suppose you are able to live forever biologically. Healthy and youthful. But you could do no more than that. You would see the humans around derive and evolve into beings or sentiences that you could not comprehend any longer. Plus those beings may even become a form of energy.
All of this within about 300 years from now I think. Well within a biological immortals lifespan.
And the darndest thing is, is that this is the logical and normal progression of baryonic matter in the universe (our portion of the multiverse). That is what the future is really about. Not being forever young, but being forever. Whether that is a good or bad thing, I don't have the knowledge to know.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (11)editdelete
Consciousness, panpsychism, and AGI: What is it like to be a hat? | Ben Goertzel by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
No, they are informationally connected. It is that instant response to each others position that makes up the effect of the murmuration. But my point was that kind of instantaneous communication nearly a half mile apart at times, strikes me as the way that neruons can radiate information to the point of emergence of consciousness as well.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (9)editdelete
Consciousness, panpsychism, and AGI: What is it like to be a hat? | Ben Goertzel by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Oh yeah, I'm totally on board with consciousness as an emergent phenomenon. I have often used the example of the "murmuration". Like if you have one starling, it flies around and does what a single starling does.
But if you have 5,000 to a million starlings flying together you get the emergence of the "mindedness" of the murmuration. Is that an illusion or something real. I have read it is about 3 simple mathematic variables leading to a maddeningly complex outcome. I sometimes wonder if we are seeing a vital clue to the concept of consciousness writ large in the sky. Fish and bugs do that kind of thing too.
Sometimes we can forget how staggering a phenomenon that is. I like to show this video ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOGCSBh3kmM
permalinksavecontextfull comments (9)editdelete
Scientists Find Potential New Treatment For Aggressive Blood Cancer In Eye Drops by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 6 points 1 month ago
Important takeaway.
It may seem surprising to find a new potential treatment for leukemia in a drug being developed for eye disease, but as scientists are learning more and more about the genetic causes of diseases, there are increasing incidences of overlaps.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (6)editdelete
Consciousness, panpsychism, and AGI: What is it like to be a hat? | Ben Goertzel by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Sensing and reacting requires modeling. Sensing is being aware of something. Literally.
This is why it is so insanely difficult to define consciousness. Just because an organism can sense and react to something does not necessarily mean it is modeling. I think the sensing and reaction is on one-off thing. No modeling required. Yet with virtually zero brain and only like 300 neurons it can demonstrate the effects of memory.
I think before we can make consciousness, we might need to learn how make life in the first place.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (9)editdelete
Consciousness, panpsychism, and AGI: What is it like to be a hat? | Ben Goertzel by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I think it is even simpler than that. A C. Elegans cannot model reality. Nevertheless it demonstrates general intelligence in the absence of a true brain. It senses and reacts. It likely has zero consciousness of it's reality, but it is "aware" and its body then does whatever needs to be done. So too is a virus under the right conditions or a coral polyp.
I think people often confuse the vast differences between "intelligence", "awareness" and consciousness.
I like your defined levels though--that's cool!
What do you think of this thing I wrote? My hypothesis is you have to be biological to have consciousness, you need some kind of memory and some kind of body.
https://www.reddit.com/useizumi3682/comments/9786um/but_whats_my_motivation_artificial_general/
permalinksavecontextfull comments (9)editdelete
Preventive Priorities Survey: 2019 - USA Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action (CPA) by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Here is the alarmist "Express" article that brought this to my attention. You watch this space. In less than one week I prophesy that this will all be in the mainstream media. "Express" got the scoop.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1060948/world-war-3-trump-news-us-war-report-china-iran-north-korea-latest
permalinksavecontextfull comments (1)editdelete
McDonald's exec: "We're keeping our eye" on meatless burgers - The iconic burger chain is considering fake meat. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Nevertheless gluten content is a non-issue unless you have particular forms of pathological gluten sensitivity. Sure there is tons more type two diabetes showing up as early as 8 years old nowadays, but that is not the same thing as gluten sensitivity.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/05/what-s-really-behind-gluten-sensitivity
For normal humans, gluten is no more harmful than an apple. It's a food fad.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (93)editdelete
McDonald's exec: "We're keeping our eye" on meatless burgers - The iconic burger chain is considering fake meat. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
"Glutens" isn't some weird chemical that's inserted into foods.
Yes I understand that. I was making a riff on this odd societal fad of eating gluten free food. I think it is more a comment on the zeitgeist of our times, particularly in people under the age of 40, rather than any kind of problem with extant glutens.
How big were we on gluten free food in say, 1975? Aside from specific pathologies that were relatively rare it was a non-issue.
The same kind of people that decry gluten in foods also tend to be the same kind of people that decry meat as well. They have a statistically higher likelihood of being vegans.
So I was in effect making an ironic (and I thought, clever) humorous statement, but nobody got the joke or worse, it offended their sensibilities and they downvoted me like a house on fire. Piss on them if they can't take a joke.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (93)editdelete
This AI Startup Constantly Monitors Kids To Stop The Next School Shooting—And It Just Scored $16 Million Funding by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 4 points 1 month ago
As narrow AI becomes more and more immersive (intrusive) into our lives, that it, in concert with our surveillance technology would inevitably make it almost impossible to commit street crime wouldn't you think? Soon we will have IoT monitors on every street corner. Each individual person already has instant access to 911. I have multiple ways to surreptitiously and instantly call 911 on my mobile. All the mobiles do this now right?
In addition to this, law enforcement will have increasingly powerful computing and AI to determine "hot spots" for enhanced policing. I wonder if street crime is already decreasing because of this.
What won't go away are all the forms of computing crime and "white collar" crime. After all, those crooks are the ones running the computers and the AI.
My ex-wife, who I am pretty good friends with actually, got herself a doorbell cam and she wants me to get one too. I saw how her doorbell cam worked with her mobile. Wow that is insanely cool! And unlike store cams this is high definition.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (11)editdelete
Burnout, stress lead more companies to try a four-day work week - companies around the world that have cut their work week have found that it leads to higher productivity, more motivated staff and less burnout by EnoughPM2020 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 11 points 1 month ago
The only "4 day workweek" I am interested in is the one where I work 4 eight hour days, but get paid for five 8 hour days. Otherwise forget it.
I have worked for 39 years. I know that of which I speak. I can't afford to be "burned out". I have to keep feeding the machine or be homeless.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (23)editdelete
Google Assistant will proactively tell you if it thinks your flight will be delayed - With 85 percent confidence by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 5 points 1 month ago
Just what I need. 15% "uncertainty" additional stress on top of all the regular stress at the airport. I'm not going to rely on Google Assistant until it's proven to be 99% confident. I'll just hope for the best. Like I do right now.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (2)editdelete
McDonald's exec: "We're keeping our eye" on meatless burgers - The iconic burger chain is considering fake meat. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] -7 points 1 month ago
Now here is a potentially interesting dilemma. It is a healthier "veggie" burger, but it might be chock full of glutens. I know it is a fashionable societal attribute not to eat foods with gluten in them like we all have celiac disease or something, so will people snatch these up?
The test for me is simple. If it tastes good and feels right in my mouth I'm going to eat it. But these better cost like 25 cents each--or I'm just eating the regular hamburgers.
To me the point of all this so-called meatless (veggie) or lab-grown meat is that it is supposed to be dirt cheap and a nutritious part of this "post-scarcity" future.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (93)editdelete
Experts Urge U.S. to Continue Support for Nuclear Fusion Research by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
That is incorrect.
The day in 1993 that the Democratic controlled congress defeated the SCSC bill was the very day that the USA began to slip in leading the world in technological progress. A day more portentous than any economic black Friday.
Following Rep. Jim Slattery's successful orchestration in the House,[13] President Clinton signed the bill which finally cancelled the project on October 1, 1993, stating regret at the "serious loss" for science.[19]
Clinton could have vetoed to reflect his belief, but that would have been political suicide and he was much smarter than that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconducting_Super_Collider
In 1993, Slattery orchestrated the House campaign that killed the Superconducting Super Collider.[8] The SSC would have been about three times as powerful as CERN's Large Hadron Collider, most notable for discovering a particle consistent with a Higgs boson.[9][10][11][12][13]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Slattery
Both chambers had a Democratic majority. This is the last Congress which the Democratic Party had both house majorities in the 20th Century.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/103rd_United_States_Congress
permalinksavecontextfull comments (8)editdelete
The Maddening Struggle to Make Robo-Cars Safe—and Prove It by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 1 month ago
Personally I can't wait to jump into a robo-car. It can make all the right turns in the world it wants to. I plan to be asleep or playing a videogame.
The level 5 autonomy E-SDV does not have to be 100% safe. It only needs to be safer than the alternative of humans driving and causing, as of the year 2017, 37,000 human fatalities in the USA alone due to human error MVAs.
I guarantee that if we suddenly all changed to E-SDVs at once that through simple computing calculation alone the death toll of MVAs would be "halved" at a bare minimum.
But there are some very human problems involved with realizing this vision.
First, there goes your free will of action. Your chances of being in a fatal MVA will be cut in half and not too much longer than that reduced to nearly zero, but what about thems that was in a fatal MVA with a level 5 autonomy E-SDV and the error was due to the technology? Well humans are the kind of people that would prefer to just leave the 37k figure alone and let us keep driving manually over cutting that statistic in half and give up our sense of self control of destiny.
I have to add to that one thought. Yes, the technologies to make our manually driven vehicles ever safer including all kinds of driver assist seem like good ideas on paper, but so far at least, the statistics don't bear that out. In any event all automotive manufacturers, every single one, desire level 5 autonomy E-SDVs as the ultimate goal. Further they are not planning to include personal ownership as a part of that. Subscription is the means of utilization. Can we turn that concept around now? I doubt it. Watch this space in ten years time.
Another thing is the idea of being controlled in some kind of way. If we ultimately give up our own POVs in favor of some kind of hypothetical subscription service, then the data of where we are and where we are going and probably what we are up to is right out there. One thing, I bet it would seriously cut down certain types of human crime for sure. But the "Skyn--I mean the computers would have way more information about you. Actionable information, that can be used.
Me, I'm fine with that for me. I don't know if everybody else is.
Tangentially related to that, is this business of harassing E-SDVs lately. Particularly the Waymo ones it appears. This is an approaching technology that is clearly seen to be such a paradigm change that it assaults our idea of what it means to drive around. And a lot of people don't like the idea of that. They don't want to be shown up. They don't want to be controlled. And they definitely don't want to lose that all important sense of self directed and personally controlled destiny.
You might get a kick out of this kinda redneck video. I bet a lot of humans in society totally agree with this fellow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxd8g5d6LB0
I don't blame them one bit. Just because I'm fine with it, I can understand how everyone else feels. But just because I can empathize with you does not mean you are ultimately in the right. A lot of this kind of thinking is emotional based and is logically fallacious.
This technology is going to improve, and it is going to improve at an ever faster rate. Just imagine what these robots--yep they are robots--will be capable of in as little as two more years.
None of this technological change is in a vacuum. E-SDVs are nothing more than a fairly noticeable sign of what is unfolding. The ARA (AI, robotics and automation) is logically beginning to take over for the human mind, just as the first industrial revolution took over for the human (and horse and oxen) muscle. I say "logically" because that is the whole point of what humans are doing. We want to replace the human mind. Well, "they" do and we see the convenience and just go along with it. But seriously is it possible to reverse this course? Do we even want to? And even if we want to, I think the path is now set in ARA 3D printed stonelike material. We are now truly just along for the ride--pun sort of intended.
I really have to haul this footage out again. When you watch it, consider not only how the transportation technology changed, but how the change was filmed with ever its ownself, improving technology and the very mores of society seem to have changed over that time too. And bear in mind that this "soft" singularity only took about 16 years to ensue.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/5kjsck/47_of_jobs_will_disappear_in_the_next_25_years/dbor7js/
Finally, it will not take long for human society to desire this change in transportation and end the reign of the manually driven, internal combustion engine for good. Alas, I see this might even include the motorcycle...
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/8q9gna/youll_need_lots_of_insurance_for_selfdriving_cars/e0ida3j/
Well, that is just the future of how we are going to get around. So many other things are coming because of ARA. But don't forget also about computing in general. Oh also, when I say these things are "coming", I mean like in the next couple of years. I bet five years from now is already starting to significantly change from the world of today.
That exponentially improving ARA, you see.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (1)editdelete
37% of Tech Experts Worry AI Will Make Life Worse by 2030 by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 1 month ago
The ARA (AI, robotics and automation) is just stuff and tools.
What matters is how the greedy ultra-materialistic 1% of humans use these tools to enrich themselves at the expense of 99% of the worlds population.
After about 20 years though the ARA will be running the whole show even if it is merged with human minds. Also we will probably rapidly assume the characteristics of a hive mind, one way or another.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (5)editdelete
Izumi3682 Archives by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Oops! No I will fix it! Definitely remove please.
permalinksavecontextfull comments (2)editdelete
If tech experts worry about artificial intelligence, shouldn’t you as well? by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 1 month ago
There are two dictums, which I totally did not make up,(I read them somewhere. But if I did make them up, that would make me right clever then, wouldn't it?) concerning AI, which I now call ARA (AI, robotics and automation).
1.Who controls the ARA initially?
2.Can the ARA ultimately be controlled at all?
About that second one, we probably need to worry about that in about 20 years.
But the first one? That's right now today. And the ARA technology and its use by humans is going to absolutely, exponentially explode in the next 5 years. ARA is awesome for controlling people. Where (and how) they go. If they commit crime. What they are up to. And how your employment will fare. China (PRC) is literally drooling about the future.
The biggest problem I see with ARA today is not the ARA taking over. It's the small percentage of humans using ARA to remake or destroy society for the bulk of humanity. In pretty much every way you can imagine. And in about ten years it is all going to come to a head. For better or worse.
My question is, how many humans on Earth will be left to fret the AI in 20 years?
permalinksavecontextfull comments (3)editdelete
The market economy exhibits most of the traits of the much hyped – and feared – singularity, where an artificial intelligence takes over the show and humans are enslaved. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I edit a lot when I first comment. I probably added more to that initial comment if you are interested.

Richard's Wanderings 14

Chapter 14
Introduction: Island Life
A school of eels chased a single large fish through the reef. They branched out and around nipping out to force the fish into the shallows, the eels all acted in concert as if they were a single large organism. They brought the fish up toward the beach then Richard lashed out spearing the fish and quickly pulling it into his chest. The fish was certainly big, but Rich was bigger. The eels began to surround him, but after Rich reached into the mass and pulled a few out they scattered. Rich kicked back toward the beach and looked up at the sky. Day one was looking bright since he had food, water, and fire. Next order of business was finding a way to get in touch with Swii.
Act 1: Her Way Out
Glacia had made a few changes after a few days on the island. First, she had cut off her shirt to make a small sack for foraging. Next she had given up her boots and pant legs to the material stockpile. Finally she was carrying a coral knife she used to cut up fern stems and help harvest the Rokka pollen spirals to fuel the fire. At first she had been ashamed to go without clothes, but Richard ran around without shoes or a shirt and seemed more comfortable for it. Once she accepted that function and comfort came before pride Glacia started enjoying herself. The sand pleasantly tickled her feet and the wind gently brushed her chitin. She also noticed that dirt and grime easily fell off her bare chitin while she worked. Glacia had also accepted a truce with her prey. She wouldn't be able to survive here alone, and Richard had no means of calling for help. So the two of them worked together. Glacia would scavenge the island for kindling and broken pieces of the ship while Richard pried up pieces of his ship's computer and gathered food. Then at camp he would tend the fire and cobble materials together while she worked on a beacon. Glacia turned back to the islands interior looking for a power source, hoping Richard caught something big for dinner.
Back at camp Richard was cleaning a large fish while three eels roasted on skewers. Glacia got right to business, “So what parts did you get Richard?” Richard's reply was to gesture to his bag. Inside there were several parts that would have potential once rinsed with fresh water and dried. Worst case there would be some good bits of metal and a couple working semiconductors. After she finished appraising each piece Richard had finished with the fish and wrapped it in ferns to bake. Then he asked, “How was your day foraging?” “Oh, well, it was good. I found a lump of soft metal that should make for good sauder and a reactor fuse I'll be able to convert into an iron. Assuming I can find a fuel source.” “Any ideas what one would look like?” “The best bet would be a battery from the ship, you can access them through the bottom or a panel inside the back. They are very heavy black bars, you will not mistake them for anything else.” Richard sighed at that, then said, “It'll be a while before I can get anything from that deep in. I don't have much time and there's a lot of stuff I'll have to strip away first.” “Well, it will take me another two days at least to rig up something that can transmit. So there's no rush.” “Hey, why rush? I doubt a gal like you takes much time off. Enjoy your vacation while you can.” Glacia turned away, embarrassed. She couldn't handle Richard's confidence on the island. The fear of being stuck on this island was too great for her to relax. She smiled to herself, it was nice to have someone worry for her, then got to work. The biggest thing to do was dismantle the parts she had, separate out what could be salvaged then rip out the wiring and mounts from what was broken to be reused. As Glacia wrapped wiring around a small sliver of metal she imagined how the pieces would fit together, two days to build her transmitter. Hopefully they would find a battery, but she reminded herself not to count on it.
Act 2: Misunderstood
Richard tossed his net out, and pulled in 10 eels and two fish. The rest of the eels were able to slither out the holes in the net. Rich brought his harvest to camp straight away and started cleaning them, and put them in a small oven too cook. He looked over at Glacia, she was carefully peeling a film off of a thin piece of plating. Occasionally the film would break and she would sigh, then get back to work. Like she said it had only taken three days for her to build a little transmitter and string an antennae up. For the past three days she had been working on making a power source. The batteries Rich brought up were shot. A ring of coral scratched a breach in all of them and the salt water ruined it. Glacia had dug some bits out of it, but hadn't made much yet. Still she pressed on. She had an admirable work ethic. Rich had been reduced to working on pet projects while watching the horizon. He sat down near her and started working on some rope. He watched the oven while he weaved and kept an ear out for Glacia. Occasionally she would ask him for something. Sometimes she would ask for help making something, sometimes for a scrap from the car, sometimes she asked if he could do anything to make things more comfortable. Even now he was weaving rope to try and make a hammock. The net was easy since he had netting from the car, but he didn't have enough to catch fish and make a bed. In a few minutes the fish would be done then Rich could take a bath and get the salt off. Then he was free, until tomorrow.
Richard looked at the side of his hut. Seven marks had been carved into it. A full week had passed since he started tracking the days. Glacia was as constant as ever. Right now she was heating a piece of glass to bend around a ball of coiled wire. Rich went out to catch some fish. Then stopped back at the hut to smoke them. Then went inland to gather some fern root. Then boiled the roots. Then Rich ran a circuit around the island. Routine, as long as he kept to his routine everything would turn out okay. But it wasn't okay. Another day passed with another empty horizon. And another. Rich was growing antsy. Glacia kept on with her work, happy as a clam. He couldn't believe that she could be content without making progress, she had to be close. When she finished, she would call her allies. He would go from being trapped on an island, to being trapped in a cell. But there was no other way out.
Another three days passed. Rich started asking questions. How does this work? What are doing now? How do you know that will work? But she remained taciturn. For all Rich knew she had already called for back up and was just keeping his guard down. Or, she was waiting for a chance to activate the beacon without him knowing. There was enough stored food for Rich to watch her for a couple days, so he did. She asked him about hunting for food at first, and he simply said he was taking a break. She didn't do anything odd, but was clearly wary. Watching him more than usual, when she went to fetch water she would keep checking behind her and when she went to plug something into the transmitter her head was on a swivel. With his fears confirmed Rich waited until she fell asleep, then stole the transmitter.
That morning Rich smiled to himself, he held all the cards now. He watched Glacia walk into the trees to start her day. But she didn't come back. Hours passed before Rich's patience left him. Then he went in search of her. He found her sitting by the antennae, waiting for him. He opened his mouth, face red with rage, but she spoke first. “I did not think you would become so irrational. I knew, well, I had read about the effects solitude and confinement can have on, socially, adapted creatures. But I never actually thought that simple loneliness could drive a being to act this way. I thought it was a syndrome that existed primarily in dramas. But seeing you now. It's terrifying.” Rich stopped, then yelled, “I'm terrifying! Look at yourself, sitting alone all day never talking always listening, tinkering, planning! How am I supposed to trust you when you never talk to me!” She replied, “I thought it went without saying. I can not hunt or fish like you, I have no mind nor patience for weaving plants into a bed or felling trees to build shelter. You can live here, comfortably. I however, am entirely reliant on you for sustenance. As you rely on me to build a beacon. I thought this exchange was enough, but it seems I was wrong.” Rich shrunk back and asked, “Why don't you care?” “About what?” “People, your soldiers, being stuck here, me. Why don't you care about any of it?” Glacia thought for a moment, “Well, that is a complex question to answer, but I'll try doing it from the start. My race, the tzzlevkt, have only exhibited social behavior for about 5000 years, that is enough to learn mores and to justify them, but there isn't a hard wired biological need for companionship. So we find it very easy to view individuals as resources rather than, whatever you see. Next is the island, I deeply care about whether or not I get off of it. But. The reason I am not as desperate as you to leave is tied in to the last part of your question. I came here to hunt you. You specifically. And right now, I have you trapped here. So whatever anxiety I feel is blown away by the fact that for now, I've come out on top in your little gambit.” Rich sat down and said, “So you've come all this way for me?” “Yes,” Glacia replied, “on the Adjudicator you caused a riot that I could barely contain. The only way for me to survive that day was to trick you. And you still escaped. I think you have a great deal to offer the Central Systems Richard.” Rich laughed, “What could I do from a cell.” “I would make sure you were given amnesty,” Glacia replied. Rich stopped to think. This woman was completely alien to him. All her empathy came from cold calculation. He had to ask, “Why tell the truth now? If you're already comfortable lying to me why bother meeting me here?” She smiled, it was an alien facial movement, but the brightness in her eyes let him know. Then she said, “You need to hear it. In that state of paranoia and rage you spent the last three days in you were useless. And I can't allow that.” Rich smiled too, “Let's get back to camp,” he said as he pulled Glacia to her feet.
Act 3: Queen
Swii sat in the cellblock of the Writ. The ship had sustained a great deal of damage during the crash. Problem was that Swii had only seen a brief glimpse of the exterior before the cops threw her in cell. But she could tell that things weren't going well. No one was test firing the engine. Swii couldn't see much through the slit in the door, but it was worrying that no one was guarding her. Well, with nothing else to do Swii started shouting for help.
The next day someone finally came. A guard came to let Swii out. Swii watched him carefully, unsure about what was going on. She started tearing up in case they had called for help. The bridge deck was a mess. Her car's wing had sheared through the arresting bay and into the communications console. There was a ton of blood as well. Swii figured that someone was strapped in there during the crash. The broken console had fallen into the main console during the crash smashing it into pieces. There were only five crewmen on the bridge, all tzzlevkt. One stepped forward and asked, “Do you have any ship maintenance experience. Your file indicated that you did system repairs on your ship prior to your first arrest.” Swii looked at the broken panel and answered, “I have done emergency repairs on small vessels. Mostly electrical work. Most of the time I just had to make sure a signal got out. Don't you have anyone that specialized in repairs? I'd be happy to help them, but it'd be better if they lead the repairs.” The crew looked to each other for a moment, then the leader spoke again, “The munitions officer was harmed in the crash and is comatose. I'm treating him now, so he will be conscious in a couple days time. In the mean time you need to restore the communications system as much as you can.” Swii chirped happily, “Okay, I'm glad that I can help us get out of here sooner. But what about the engines?” Swii stopped when the crew started to change their demeanor, and softly added, “If there are any power fluctuations from the reactor it could effect the communications systems.” The crew looked at each other again, then the leader said, “There is no leak or fluctuation from the reactor.
Swii was diligently working, but not on what the crew thought. She had spent the past day pulling out the remains of the gutted console. The crew split up to patch the ships exterior and they left a single guard with Swii. But she slipped past him easy, she said that she had to crawl down the conduit to check for damage to the wiring and that he'd have to stand by in the room in case she got stuck. Then she took the maintenance tunnel out to one of the weapons blisters. There she sneaked back to the medical bay. Inside the leader, a medical officer was treating the munitions officer, from what Swii could see from the doorway one of the gas containers had breached in the crash overdosing the cop and blowing him across the room. Swii went down to the munitions bay to grab a thumb sized canister of gas, then returned to medical. The officer had left, so Swii snuck in slightly opened the canister so it would leak slowly then shoved it into the munitions officers abdomen, into a wound by his lungs. Then she snuck back into the maintenance tunnels, just in time. The medical officer was calling for her. Swii crawled out covered in lubricant and grime to report. She was going to need some wire to patch the cables, then when the munitions officer “woke up” he wouldn't have to worry about that. Then she went back to sleep in her cell.
Swii had been working on the “communications systems” for a week now. The crew was panicked, but didn't want her to know. The munitions officer died in the night, and a power failure in the med bay meant that medicine aboard the ship had just been kicked back a few hundred years. The medical officer was now roaming the halls to catch any injury before it could get serious. The crew had finished patching the hull. But Swii couldn't have them bothering her, so she suggested that they start taking shifts with a signal fire or light, since the crew at the bungalow could be patrolling the nearby waters with the boat there. Next she suggested the crew find alternate food and water sources so that they wouldn't have to start rationing the ships supplies. Crew deflected she started patching the bridge displays into the maintenance computer. It would take time, but time wasn't a problem.
After another month Swii was living the good life. The crew had virtually given up on rescue and were attempting to adapt to island life. That meant they were building up their own territories, gathering more varied food, and competing for the favor of the islands only female. Swii would occasionally go into the ship to work on restoring it, but the tzzlevkt chalked that up to some social obligation she felt to them. Swii spent most of her time being pampered. The crew was certainly industrious, but without the law looming over them they quickly started hindering each other. Still, as long as she gave a direct order they would work together to accomplish it. So far she had a small grove of fruit to supplement the fish and nice island style dress made of ferns. Next thing she wanted were some old fashion fans that royalty had slaves wave for them. Then it would be coral jewelry.
Another month passed and Swii started to notice that one crew member had asserted dominance over the others. All she could think was it was nice while it lasted. That day she went to work to finish the last rewire and test fired the engine. There was a roar of thrust for an instant, and Swii knew it was ready. Now for the hard part. She took a live wire and put a couple of big singes on her wings, ruining the luster she had worked on laying on the beach and walked out of the ship crying. She could see the confusion on the crew's faces. There was betrayal, elation, fear, and more they seemed ready to lynch her. Swii was not intimidated though, she cried out to them that there was a short in the main circuit and the reactor activated then blew out the patches she made on the communications lines. It would be impossible to repair them herself, they were stuck on this island. The crew deflated, glad that they didn't have to deal with false hope. Swii asked them to fetch her some fruit, since she was sad and would need comfort tonight. She held back the strongest, and whispered to him that she wanted him to bring the fruit to her alone, and to make sure the rest of the crew wouldn't interrupt them tonight. As they sped off Swii stepped back into the ship and closed the hatch and left the island for good.
Act 4: Return to the Skies
Richard roamed his island on his morning run. He had been busy over the past month. Spirit renewed he had put his all into making the island comfortable. He had renovated the hut with some windows and and a small fireplace. Then he had hollowed out a log to make a canoe. The surrounding islands had different plant life including fruit trees, large almond-like nuts complete with milk inside, and large leafed ferns stiff enough to use as a fan. He spent a little time each day on a personal project, a little more on gathering, and the rest on Glacia. Rich had forgotten how nice it was to have someone rely on you. She was still working on her battery, but Rich didn't think it would work. She had a couple failures and they were out of useful scrap for her to use. Rich still watched the horizon, but less eagerly and often. He had accepted his new life with her. It was even a bit romantic, like the old Swiss Family Robinson. With another few months, Glacia was starting to accept it too, she wouldn't hesitate to put down her work to talk or go out on a walk with him. Rich thought about taking her to one of the other islands, she didn't like being out on the sea, but if he put a pontoon on the canoe and held her close she might not even get wet. Then a ship appeared in the sky and all his plans were blown away.
Richard waved frantically and ran to the fire. He immediately threw all the pollen threads on it to build it up then grabbed the oily ferns to make smoke. Glacia was still sleeping in their hammock and woke up coughing as a draft pulled the fumes into their house. Rich shouted that there was a ship patrolling, but was too busy signaling to notice the look on her face. The only thing that filled his head was the stars and space in between. Soon enough he'd be back there. He just needed to commandeer that ship. Glacia sat down beside him and they watched the ship come in together, they recognized it as her old ship, the Writ. Rich stepped in front of her with a guarded stance. The ship landed and Swii flew out in her island regalia. Rich broke out in a smile and ran to hug her. The ship was already theirs, but he turned back to Glacia. He looked into her eyes and saw sadness. Rich couldn't leave her. He looked at Swii, who was growing more and more angry as she looked at his neck, then he looked to Glacia. Rich opened his mouth, but like before she already knew what he had to say and cut him off, “Richard, I can't go with you. I have my own people to attend to and superiors to report too. I can't go with you if you're going back up to see the stars.” Richard hugged her one last time. Then got on the ship. Swii fluttered after him in a huff. She went straight to the bridge, but Rich ran to maintenance and grabbed a very specific battery. As Swii took off he tossed it out the airlock with the words, “We'll meet again.”
Act 5:
Glacia looked at the battery in the sand and felt something sweet shine through her sadness. She left it there, then walked to her transmitter. She turned it on and waited. After a few hours a member of the real estate security team landed and took Glacia back into the Central Systems.
After a long series of flights Glacia and her crew were on their way back to headquarters to report to the committee. The crew left at the bungalow were able to live comfortably in the buildings confines and eat from the food abundant on the island. Apparently the team with the Writ had been seduced by the twilii and weren't aware she had repaired the ship's propulsion until she left them there. Well, with their story hers would seem much more plausible. The committee called Glacia in for her report. She had prepared her story well beforehand. Since the Fiet family would be applying pressure she made sure to tailor things to suit them too. She started by explaining that the creature she was hunting before was a new sapient species that had a history being traded in the Morva sector, including a stint as a fighting animal. Glacia made sure to note that Richard would have been forced to act outside the law to live freely since his introduction to the galactic community. Then Glacia explained how they were stranded on an island after the crash where she had extended time to interview him. She explained that Richard was part of a highly sexually active species and that he had spent a considerable amount of time releasing those urges. Then she told the committee about their relationship on the island, the meaning behind her ring, and that she left a mark on him in turn. Glacia hypothesized that his species sexual nature had warped his twilii companion, Swii, due to her species highly sympathetic nature. When asked for a summary of crimes Glacia asked for clarification. The committee confirmed that they would only execute warrants for crimes committed after Richard was informed of the basics of the Central Systems Code, which specifically would be one month after the crash since that would have been plenty of time for Glacia to inform him of the codes through conversation. In the end only two charges were laid out. One for Swii: hysteria driven action, with the sentence: counseling and payment of damages. One for the officially recognized Richard Roth: child abandonment, sentence: counseling and reunion. Glacia left the committee meeting satisfied, and took advantage of her medical leave to travel.
To Be Continued...
Richard smirked at Swii. She had been pissed at him till he started asking questions about her clothes, and coral jewelry, and how she stole the ship. When he got the story out of her he couldn't help but chuckle. She spent the trip sulking, but perked up once the passed the border and left the Central Systems. She took an odd route around the checkpoint since this ship had engines capable of independent warp. And after a few days they entered orbit around Aquila.
Previous Next

each way bet calculator coral video

Each Way Betting Calculator If you would like to check the profit and returns from an each-way bet, use this simple calculator. The pre-filled defaults show the format you should use for this to work. What is Each-Way Betting, and how does it work? Horse Racing. In an each-way bet your stake is doubled, as you are betting on the selection to win, and on the selection to be placed. So a £5 each way bet will cost £10 as the bet is made up of £5 win and £5 place. The place part of the bet will be paid at a fraction of the win price. The Free Bet Calculator is the premier online sports bet calculator, offering the most comprehensive range of bets and settling options. All of the most popular bet types available from both online and high-street bookmakers are supported, with options to adjust various parameters to reflect your bookmaker’s settlement rules. Use the Each Way return calculator to work out your winnings online for all sports. Free, easy to use and mobile friendly bet calculator. Free Bet Calculator. You can use our main free bet calculator below to work out the winning of any bet: Fill in the ENTER BET DETAILS box. Firstly, select your BET TYPE and choose which type of bet you are wanting to calculate the winnings for. Select if the bet was win or each way. Choose the number of selections in your bet (if an accumulator). The Free Bet Calculator is the most advanced online sports bet calculator, allowing you to calculate the stake and profit for an extensive range of bets. All of the most popular bet types are supported, including Lucky 15, Single, Double, Accumulator, Patent and Round Robin, along with more specialised bets such as Alphabet, Magnificent 7, Union Jack, and the infamous Bookies Nightmare! A good way to use the Each Way calculator is to enter the information of potential bets. So, if you’re thinking of placing an E/W bet but want to work out if it’s worth it, you can use this software to analyse the maths. What Is An Each Way Bet? Each Way betting can be used on a number of sports, but is most commonly associated with horse ... Single Bet Calculator. Have you won on your horse racing bet and want to know what you’ve won? Use our free, mobile-friendly singles bet calculator now to work out what you can expect back from the bookies! Use the single bet calculator now: For example, if the bet is priced at 4-1, then it is calculated as 1 / (4+1) = 0.2 which means there is a 20% chance of the outcome happening. The bet return is calculated by multiplying the stake by the odds. A single bet can usually be worked out easily, but when working out a multiple it is advisable to use a bet calculator. Lucky 15 bet calculator - Calculate how much you can win or have won from your Lucky 15 bet with our free online Lucky 15 and Lucky 15 Each-Way calculator tool. It includes Rule4, E/W Calculator, Bonus percentage, Consolation Bonus, Decimal, American and UK Odds. The idea of a Lucky 15 bet may seem a little daunting to you.

each way bet calculator coral top

How To: Dosing 2 Part in Your Reef Tank - YouTube

Subscribe now to Origin Access Premier and play Star Wars: Jedi Fallen Order and tons of other great games! http://x.ea.com/62068#sponsoredbyEACheck out th... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Using a Venn Diagram, students identify similarities and differences between two things by listing certain features in a chart containing overlapping circles... Good evening. I'm a sweaty Fortnite player who creates educational content, tutorials, montages and more. If you enjoy the channel, feel free to subscribe to stay up-to-date with my future videos ... "Way Maker" - Sung by The Pentecostals of AlexandriaOriginal song by Sinach Joseph. Check out all the places seen in this video: https://www.touropia.com/best-places-to-visit-in-usa/Comprised of 50 states, the USA occupies an area that’s onl... Can you shape how others perceive you? Do you ever wish you could control what people thought of you? Or maybe you just wanna communicate in a more confident... In this video we take a look at OddsMonkey in its current state in 2019, we review the service and look how useful it is for getting started with matched bet... This formula will always give you a part of your money back, even if you predicted all of your games wrong ?!Look how I developed this unique way of sports b... http://brs.li/2partdosing So why do they call it two part when there are really three parts? Why can't I mix everything and add it to my tank? These questi...

What is Each-Way Betting, and how does it work? - Coral

each way bet calculator coral

each way bet calculator coral - win

The Premier League is back this weekend, which means a resurgence in Match Betting. Here is my 3 Part Mega Guide to making £500 for several hours work, and then making £500- £1000 on a monthly basis.